WSG Wattens v Grazer AK

7th1–110th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
WSG Wattens		Grazer AK
20	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	5
8	Corners	9
9	Fouls	15
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
462	Passes	341
57%	Possession %	43%
1.07	xG	2.12

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: WSG Wattens 40%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.50 – 1.37

Advised bets

Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Grazer AK +0.25

2.15Bet365 · fair 1.92 · qualifies at 1.98+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Grazer AK +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.15 with Bet365 — Grazer AK starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 51%; we judge it at 52%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.92. The offered 2.15 implies only 47%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: WSG Wattens 1.50, Grazer AK 1.37.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	WSG Wattens	40.1%	2.50	2.70 Betano	37.0%	+3.0
Match result	Draw	26.0%	3.84	3.60 Bet365	27.8%	-1.8
Match result	Grazer AK	33.9%	2.95	3.20 BetVictor	31.3%	+2.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.6%	1.27	1.28 Betano	78.1%	+0.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.4%	4.68	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-4.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.7%	1.83	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+1.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.3%	2.21	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-6.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.4%	3.09	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+1.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.6%	1.48	1.37 Betano	73.0%	-5.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.5%	1.71	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.5%	2.41	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-4.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

WSG Wattens v Grazer AK: too close to call

Our model makes WSG Wattens 40% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Grazer AK at 34%. The goal projection is 1.50 for WSG Wattens against 1.37 for Grazer AK — a slight edge to WSG Wattens on expected output. A combined 2.87 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 8%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for WSG Wattens and Grazer AK
WSG Wattens		Grazer AK
12	Played	12
3-4-5	W-D-L	2-4-6
1.08	Pts / game	0.83
1.25	Goals for / game	0.75
1.50	Goals against / game	2.42
58%	Over 2.5	67%
58%	BTTS	50%
25%	Clean sheets	17%
17%	Failed to score	50%
0-4-2	Home record	1-3-1
3-0-3	Away record	1-1-5
D1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. WSG Wattens · Grazer AK

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.0	Shots	14.4
5.4	Shots on target	4.2
5.0	Corners	4.6
2.00	Cards	2.00
11.6	Fouls	14.0
53	Possession %	42
1.28	xG	1.25
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.0	Shots	17.4
4.6	Shots on target	6.0
6.0	Corners	6.0
2.00	Cards	1.60
13.4	Fouls	9.6
47	Possession %	58
1.62	xG	2.09
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
WSG Wattens	Metric	Grazer AK
2.00	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.10 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.92
	Big chances
5.33 (better)	Shots on target	4.67
14.33	Total shots	14.33
	Touches in opp. box
8.00 (better)	Corners	2.67
57.7 (better)	Possession %	40.7
512 (better)	Passes	311
	Tackles
11.00 (better)	Fouls	15.67
3.00	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	2.33
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

WSG Wattens wins: 1
Draws: 2
Grazer AK wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.20
Over 2.5: 40%
Both score: 60%

WSG Wattens v Grazer AK1–12026-10-24
Grazer AK v WSG Wattens4–02026-05-02
WSG Wattens v Grazer AK1–52026-03-21
WSG Wattens v Grazer AK2–02026-03-08
Grazer AK v WSG Wattens1–12025-08-16

Austrian Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rapid Vienna	12	11	0	1	+30	33	Rapid Vienna won 5 of the last 5
2	Red Bull Salzburg	12	9	3	0	+24	30	Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of the last 5
3	Lask Linz	12	8	1	3	+15	25	Lask Linz won 3 of the last 5
4	TSV Hartberg	12	6	2	4	+4	20	TSV Hartberg won 4 of the last 5
5	Sturm Graz	12	5	4	3	+5	19	Sturm Graz won 2 of the last 5
6	Ried	12	4	4	4	-1	16	Ried won 2 of the last 5
7	WSG Wattens	12	3	4	5	-3	13	WSG Wattens won 1 of the last 5
8	Austria Lustenau	12	3	2	7	-15	11	Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5
9	SCR Altach	12	3	1	8	-9	10	SCR Altach won 2 of the last 5
10	Grazer AK	12	2	4	6	-20	10	Grazer AK won 0 of the last 5
11	Austria Vienna	12	2	2	8	-12	8	Austria Vienna won 0 of the last 5
12	Wolfsberger AC	12	1	3	8	-18	6	Wolfsberger AC won 0 of the last 5