Predicted Edge

Worcester City v Chorley

Worcester City won 3 of the last 51–0Chorley won 2 of the last 4
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
32%
Both score
58%
Model pick
Worcester City 39%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.40

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Total goalsUnder 2.545.5%2.202.00 Bet36550.0%-4.5
Total goalsOver 3.532.2%3.11———
Total goalsUnder 3.567.8%1.481.37 Betano73.0%-5.2
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes58.5%1.71———
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No41.5%2.412.10 Betano47.6%-6.1
Match resultWorcester City38.6%2.592.65 Dafabet37.7%+0.8
Match resultDraw26.1%3.833.75 Dafabet26.7%-0.6
Match resultChorley35.3%2.832.55 Dafabet39.2%-3.9
Total goalsOver 1.578.5%1.271.25 Betano80.0%-1.5
Total goalsUnder 1.521.5%4.663.60 Betano27.8%-6.3
Total goalsOver 2.554.5%1.831.80 Bet36555.6%-1.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Worcester City v Chorley: too close to call

Our model makes Worcester City 39% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 26% and Chorley at 35%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Worcester City against 1.40 for Chorley — almost nothing to Worcester City on expected output. A combined 2.86 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 12%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
1-0 8%
0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Worcester City and Chorley
Worcester City Chorley
7Played4
4-2-1W-D-L2-1-1
2.00Pts / game1.75
1.29Goals for / game1.50
0.71Goals against / game0.75
29%Over 2.525%
57%BTTS50%
29%Clean sheets25%
14%Failed to score25%
3-0-0Home record0-1-0
1-2-1Away record2-0-1
L1StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Worcester City · Chorley

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0Shots10.0
5.5Shots on target7.0
3.0Corners7.0
1.00Cards3.00
18.0Fouls—
46Possession %46
—xG—
2 matchessample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.5Shots19.0
7.0Shots on target9.0
5.5Corners6.0
2.00Cards0.00
7.0Fouls—
54Possession %54
—xG—
2 matchessample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Worcester CityMetricChorley
1.40Goals scored2.00 (better)
1.60Goals conceded0.80 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
9.00 (better)Shots on target7.00
19.00 (better)Total shots10.00
Touches in opp. box
6.00Corners7.00 (better)
54.0 (better)Possession %46.0
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
0.00 (better)Yellow cards3.00
0.00Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Worcester City wins
1
Draws
1
Chorley wins
0
Goals / game
1.50
Over 2.5
0%
Both score
50%