Wolfsberger AC v WSG Wattens

12th0–27th

12:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Wolfsberger AC		WSG Wattens
17	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	7
10	Corners	3
15	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
439	Passes	434
51%	Possession %	49%
1.91	xG	1.69

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Wolfsberger AC 45%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.61 – 1.25

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

WSG Wattens +0.25

2.35Bet365 · fair 2.12 · qualifies at 2.18+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back WSG Wattens +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.35 with Bet365 — WSG Wattens starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 48% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 46%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.12. The offered 2.35 implies only 43%, so the price is 10.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Wolfsberger AC 1.61, WSG Wattens 1.25.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.9%	1.73	1.55 William Hill	64.5%	-6.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.1%	2.37	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	+2.9
Match result	Wolfsberger AC	45.0%	2.22	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	+8.6
Match result	Draw	25.9%	3.86	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	-0.8
Match result	WSG Wattens	29.1%	3.44	2.82 Betano	35.5%	-6.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.6%	1.27	1.20 Bet365	83.3%	-4.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.4%	4.68	4.75 BetVictor	21.1%	+0.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.6%	1.83	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-5.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.4%	2.20	2.45 Betano	40.8%	+4.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.2%	3.10	2.75 BetVictor	36.4%	-4.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.8%	1.48	1.57 Betano	63.7%	+4.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Wolfsberger AC favoured against WSG Wattens

Our model makes Wolfsberger AC 45% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 26% and WSG Wattens at 29%. The goal projection is 1.61 for Wolfsberger AC against 1.25 for WSG Wattens — a clear edge to Wolfsberger AC on expected output. A combined 2.86 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 2-0 7%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Wolfsberger AC and WSG Wattens
Wolfsberger AC		WSG Wattens
12	Played	12
1-3-8	W-D-L	3-4-5
0.50	Pts / game	1.08
0.67	Goals for / game	1.25
2.17	Goals against / game	1.50
58%	Over 2.5	58%
42%	BTTS	58%
17%	Clean sheets	25%
50%	Failed to score	17%
1-2-3	Home record	0-4-2
0-1-5	Away record	3-0-3
L1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wolfsberger AC · WSG Wattens

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.7	Shots	15.0
3.3	Shots on target	5.4
5.0	Corners	5.0
2.20	Cards	2.00
14.0	Fouls	11.6
44	Possession %	53
1.01	xG	1.28
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.3	Shots	14.0
6.2	Shots on target	4.6
4.0	Corners	6.0
1.70	Cards	2.00
10.3	Fouls	13.4
56	Possession %	47
2.52	xG	1.62
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wolfsberger AC	Metric	WSG Wattens
1.20	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
2.60	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.05 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.04
	Big chances
3.33	Shots on target	5.33 (better)
15.00 (better)	Total shots	14.33
	Touches in opp. box
3.67	Corners	8.00 (better)
39.0	Possession %	57.7 (better)
347	Passes	512 (better)
	Tackles
11.33	Fouls	11.00 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
2.33	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Wolfsberger AC wins: 1
Draws: 2
WSG Wattens wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 20%
Both score: 40%

Wolfsberger AC v WSG Wattens0–22026-10-18
Wolfsberger AC v WSG Wattens2–02026-05-16
WSG Wattens v Wolfsberger AC3–12026-04-04
Wolfsberger AC v WSG Wattens0–02025-11-02
WSG Wattens v Wolfsberger AC1–12025-08-31

Austrian Bundesliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Rapid Vienna	12	11	0	1	+30	33	Rapid Vienna won 5 of the last 5
2	Red Bull Salzburg	12	9	3	0	+24	30	Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of the last 5
3	Lask Linz	12	8	1	3	+15	25	Lask Linz won 3 of the last 5
4	TSV Hartberg	12	6	2	4	+4	20	TSV Hartberg won 4 of the last 5
5	Sturm Graz	12	5	4	3	+5	19	Sturm Graz won 2 of the last 5
6	Ried	12	4	4	4	-1	16	Ried won 2 of the last 5
7	WSG Wattens	12	3	4	5	-3	13	WSG Wattens won 1 of the last 5
8	Austria Lustenau	12	3	2	7	-15	11	Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5
9	SCR Altach	12	3	1	8	-9	10	SCR Altach won 2 of the last 5
10	Grazer AK	12	2	4	6	-20	10	Grazer AK won 0 of the last 5
11	Austria Vienna	12	2	2	8	-12	8	Austria Vienna won 0 of the last 5
12	Wolfsberger AC	12	1	3	8	-18	6	Wolfsberger AC won 0 of the last 5