Wolfsberger AC won 0 of the last 5LDLLL12th1–1Sturm Graz won 2 of the last 5LDDWW5th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Wolfsberger AC
Sturm Graz
12
Shots
14
4
Shots on target
3
3
Corners
4
15
Fouls
11
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
1
266
Passes
492
35%
Possession %
65%
1.10
xG
1.76
22%
27%
51%
1 · Wolfsberger ACXSturm Graz · 2
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
22%
Both score
47%
Model pick
Sturm Graz 51%
Likely score
0-1 13%
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.51
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Wolfsberger AC
22.0%
4.55
5.00 Betfair
20.0%
+2.0
Match result
Draw
27.3%
3.66
4.30 Dafabet
23.3%
+4.0
Match result
Sturm Graz
50.7%
1.97
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-8.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
69.9%
1.43
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-14.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
30.1%
3.33
5.75 BetVictor
17.4%
+12.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
43.2%
2.31
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-20.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
56.8%
1.76
2.60 Bet365
38.5%
+18.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
22.3%
4.49
2.40 Betfair
41.7%
-19.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
77.7%
1.29
1.63 BetVictor
61.3%
+16.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
46.9%
2.13
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-14.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
53.1%
1.88
2.50 Bet365
40.0%
+13.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sturm Graz favoured against Wolfsberger AC
Our model makes Wolfsberger AC 22% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 27% and Sturm Graz at 51%. The goal projection is 0.90 for Wolfsberger AC against 1.51 for Sturm Graz — a substantial edge to Sturm Graz on expected output. A combined 2.41 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wolfsberger AC
Metric
Sturm Graz
0.60
Goals scored
2.40 (better)
2.60
Goals conceded
1.00 (better)
1.25
Expected goals (xG)
2.12 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.25
Shots on target
5.50 (better)
15.00 (better)
Total shots
13.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.00 (better)
Corners
5.25
48.8 (better)
Possession %
41.5
430 (better)
Passes
298
—
Tackles
—
15.75 (better)
Fouls
16.50
1.00 (better)
Offsides
3.25
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.50
Yellow cards
2.50
0.25
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Wolfsberger AC v 
Sturm Graz