Wisla Plock v 
Radomiak Radom
Match statistics
| Wisla Plock | Radomiak Radom | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 429 | Passes | 500 |
| 46% | Possession % | 54% |
| 0.54 | xG | 1.18 |
- Over 1.5
- 73%
- Over 2.5
- 47%
- Over 3.5
- 26%
- Both score
- 53%
- Model pick
- Wisla Plock 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.42 – 1.15
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Wisla Plock -0.5
Why this price?
Back Wisla Plock -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.98 with Betano — Wisla Plock must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 42% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 64%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.80. The offered 1.98 implies only 51%, so the price is 10.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Wisla Plock 1.42, Radomiak Radom 1.15.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.30 with Bet365 — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 53% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 41%; we judge it at 46%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.18. The offered 2.30 implies only 43%, so the price is 5.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.08 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Wisla Plock 1.42, Radomiak Radom 1.15.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Wisla Plock | 42.4% | 2.36 | 2.05 Betano | 48.8% | -6.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.8% | 3.60 | 3.90 Betfair | 25.6% | +2.1 |
| Match result | Radomiak Radom | 29.8% | 3.35 | 3.85 Dafabet | 26.0% | +3.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 73.4% | 1.36 | 1.19 Betano | 84.0% | -10.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 26.6% | 3.76 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | +6.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 47.4% | 2.11 | 1.60 Bet365 | 62.5% | -15.1 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | 2.38 Betfair | 42.0% | +10.6 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 25.7% | 3.88 | 2.65 Betano | 37.7% | -12.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 74.3% | 1.35 | 1.55 Betano | 64.5% | +9.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | -9.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 47.4% | 2.11 | 2.45 Betfair | 40.8% | +6.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Wisla Plock favoured against Radomiak Radom
Our model makes Wisla Plock 42% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 28% and Radomiak Radom at 30%. The goal projection is 1.42 for Wisla Plock against 1.15 for Radomiak Radom — a clear edge to Wisla Plock on expected output. A combined 2.57 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-0 8%
- 0-1 8%
This season
| Wisla Plock | Radomiak Radom | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 14 |
| 4-3-6 | W-D-L | 4-2-8 |
| 1.15 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 1.08 | Goals for / game | 1.21 |
| 1.62 | Goals against / game | 2.07 |
| 54% | Over 2.5 | 64% |
| 46% | BTTS | 57% |
| 23% | Clean sheets | 21% |
| 38% | Failed to score | 36% |
| 2-2-1 | Home record | 3-1-3 |
| 2-1-5 | Away record | 1-1-5 |
| L1 | Streak | W2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wisla Plock · Radomiak Radom
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.5 | Shots | 14.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 4.7 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.87 | Cards | 2.07 |
| 14.2 | Fouls | 11.2 |
| 45 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.12 | xG | 1.42 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 18.5 | Shots | 18.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 6.8 |
| 5.7 | Corners | 7.7 |
| 2.67 | Cards | 2.67 |
| 13.8 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 55 | Possession % | 52 |
| 2.05 | xG | 2.19 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Wisla Plock | Metric | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.25 |
| 1.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.67 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 | Shots on target | 5.33 (better) |
| 12.25 | Total shots | 16.67 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.25 | Corners | 8.67 (better) |
| 47.0 (better) | Possession % | 41.7 |
| 441 (better) | Passes | 333 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.50 (better) | Fouls | 13.00 |
| 1.75 | Offsides | 1.67 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 | Yellow cards | 1.33 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Wisla Plock wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Radomiak Radom wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.33
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 33%
- Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom1–02026-10-19
- Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom0–12026-04-26
- Radomiak Radom v Wisla Plock1–12025-10-27
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | +21 | 32 | Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 31 | Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | +10 | 24 | Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 24 | Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 24 | Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 23 | Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | +5 | 21 | GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 21 | Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 18 | Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 | Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 | Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 | Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 12 | Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Raków Częstochowa | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -8 | 12 | Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 10 | Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -10 | 8 | Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5 |