Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice

12th2–27th

11:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Wisla Plock		Piast Gliwice
21	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	6
7	Corners	1
17	Fouls	11
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
364	Passes	515
44%	Possession %	56%
2.19	xG	1.75

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Piast Gliwice 42%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.19 – 1.41

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Wisla Plock	31.1%	3.22	2.47 Dafabet	40.5%	-9.4
Match result	Draw	27.4%	3.65	3.55 Dafabet	28.2%	-0.8
Match result	Piast Gliwice	41.5%	2.41	3.40 Dafabet	29.4%	+12.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.0%	1.35	1.23 Betano	81.3%	-7.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.0%	3.84	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+2.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.3%	2.07	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-10.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.7%	1.93	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+5.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.5%	3.77	2.75 BetVictor	36.4%	-9.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.5%	1.36	1.45 Betano	69.0%	+4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.3%	1.88	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-9.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.7%	2.14	2.40 Betfair	41.7%	+5.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Piast Gliwice favoured against Wisla Plock

Our model makes Wisla Plock 31% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 27% and Piast Gliwice at 42%. The goal projection is 1.19 for Wisla Plock against 1.41 for Piast Gliwice — a slight edge to Piast Gliwice on expected output. A combined 2.60 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 1-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Wisla Plock and Piast Gliwice
Wisla Plock		Piast Gliwice
13	Played	14
4-3-6	W-D-L	6-4-4
1.15	Pts / game	1.57
1.08	Goals for / game	1.71
1.62	Goals against / game	1.43
54%	Over 2.5	57%
46%	BTTS	57%
23%	Clean sheets	29%
38%	Failed to score	21%
2-2-1	Home record	4-1-2
2-1-5	Away record	2-3-2
L1	Streak	D2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wisla Plock · Piast Gliwice

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.5	Shots	15.8
3.5	Shots on target	4.6
4.7	Corners	3.6
1.87	Cards	2.40
14.2	Fouls	9.6
45	Possession %	54
1.12	xG	1.49
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.5	Shots	17.6
5.0	Shots on target	3.8
5.7	Corners	7.6
2.67	Cards	1.80
13.8	Fouls	13.0
55	Possession %	46
2.05	xG	2.10
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wisla Plock	Metric	Piast Gliwice
1.80	Goals scored	1.80
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
0.94	Expected goals (xG)	1.29 (better)
	Big chances
3.25	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
10.25	Total shots	13.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.75 (better)	Corners	3.25
48.8	Possession %	55.5 (better)
457	Passes	476 (better)
	Tackles
13.75	Fouls	13.00 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.33 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Wisla Plock wins: 1
Draws: 1
Piast Gliwice wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice2–22026-10-31
Piast Gliwice v Wisla Plock1–02026-02-09
Wisla Plock v Piast Gliwice2–02025-08-01

Ekstraklasa table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	+21	32	Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	+11	31	Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5
3	Legia Warszawa	14	6	6	2	+10	24	Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	+3	24	Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	+1	23	Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	+5	21	GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5
9	Jagiellonia	13	7	0	6	0	21	Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	-7	18	Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	-7	15	Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5
13	Widzew Łódź	14	2	8	4	+1	14	Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	-12	14	Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	-7	12	Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	4	0	10	-8	12	Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-8	10	Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	2	2	10	-10	8	Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5