Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5WLWDL5th2–1Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5WWLWL16th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Wisla Krakow
Raków Częstochowa
13
Shots
13
8
Shots on target
2
1
Corners
4
13
Fouls
6
0
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
2
535
Passes
375
58%
Possession %
42%
1.09
xG
2.02
44%
25%
32%
1 · Wisla KrakowXRaków Częstochowa · 2
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
36%
Both score
61%
Model pick
Wisla Krakow 44%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.39
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Wisla Krakow
43.5%
2.30
1.86 Dafabet
53.8%
-10.2
Match result
Draw
24.9%
4.01
4.00 Betfair
25.0%
-0.1
Match result
Raków Częstochowa
31.5%
3.17
4.00 Betfair
25.0%
+6.5
Total goals
Over 1.5
81.3%
1.23
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-3.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
18.7%
5.35
5.50 Betfair
18.2%
+0.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
58.7%
1.70
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
-5.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
41.3%
2.42
2.45 Betano
40.8%
+0.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
36.3%
2.75
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
-5.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
63.7%
1.57
1.60 Betano
62.5%
+1.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
61.3%
1.63
1.55 William Hill
64.5%
-3.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
38.7%
2.58
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-0.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Wisla Krakow favoured against Raków Częstochowa
Our model makes Wisla Krakow 44% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 25% and Raków Częstochowa at 32%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Wisla Krakow against 1.39 for Raków Częstochowa — a clear edge to Wisla Krakow on expected output. A combined 3.05 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
1-0 7%
2-0 7%
This season
Season records for Wisla Krakow and Raków Częstochowa
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wisla Krakow
Metric
Raków Częstochowa
1.60
Goals scored
2.20 (better)
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
2.40
1.90
Expected goals (xG)
1.96 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
6.00
Shots on target
7.50 (better)
21.50 (better)
Total shots
20.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.25 (better)
Corners
5.00
50.3
Possession %
59.0 (better)
416
Passes
512 (better)
—
Tackles
—
10.75
Fouls
10.50 (better)
1.50
Offsides
1.50
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.75
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.25
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Wisla Krakow v 
Raków Częstochowa