Wieczysta Kraków v Jagiellonia

18th1–39th

13:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Wieczysta Kraków		Jagiellonia
22	Shots	20
8	Shots on target	9
10	Corners	5
14	Fouls	6
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
420	Passes	460
56%	Possession %	44%
2.21	xG	3.60

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 64%
Over 3.5: 42%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Jagiellonia 41%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.60 – 1.73

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Wieczysta Kraków	35.3%	2.83	2.60 Dafabet	38.5%	-3.1
Match result	Draw	23.9%	4.19	3.85 Dafabet	26.0%	-2.1
Match result	Jagiellonia	40.8%	2.45	2.90 Betano	34.5%	+6.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.9%	1.18	1.16 Betano	86.2%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.1%	6.62	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-1.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.5%	1.55	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.5%	2.81	2.63 BetVictor	38.0%	-2.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.4%	2.36	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-2.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.6%	1.74	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-2.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	66.0%	1.51	1.45 Betano	69.0%	-2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	34.0%	2.94	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-0.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Wieczysta Kraków v Jagiellonia: too close to call

Our model makes Wieczysta Kraków 35% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 24% and Jagiellonia at 41%. The goal projection is 1.60 for Wieczysta Kraków against 1.73 for Jagiellonia — a slight edge to Jagiellonia on expected output. A combined 3.32 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Wieczysta Kraków and Jagiellonia
Wieczysta Kraków		Jagiellonia
14	Played	13
2-2-10	W-D-L	7-0-6
0.57	Pts / game	1.62
1.29	Goals for / game	1.38
2.00	Goals against / game	1.38
71%	Over 2.5	54%
71%	BTTS	54%
7%	Clean sheets	23%
21%	Failed to score	23%
1-1-3	Home record	4-0-3
1-1-7	Away record	3-0-3
L5	Streak	W3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wieczysta Kraków · Jagiellonia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.3	Shots	17.8
4.8	Shots on target	4.8
6.8	Corners	5.3
2.00	Cards	0.50
11.3	Fouls	11.7
52	Possession %	57
1.73	xG	1.98
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.3	Shots	13.0
6.8	Shots on target	5.0
4.0	Corners	5.5
1.33	Cards	1.83
8.0	Fouls	12.8
49	Possession %	43
2.29	xG	1.74
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wieczysta Kraków	Metric	Jagiellonia
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.80 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
2.06 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.14
	Big chances
4.50 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
15.00 (better)	Total shots	11.25
	Touches in opp. box
5.50 (better)	Corners	3.25
50.8	Possession %	50.8
517 (better)	Passes	442
	Tackles
10.75 (better)	Fouls	15.00
1.75 (better)	Offsides	2.50
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Wieczysta Kraków wins: 0
Draws: 0
Jagiellonia wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Wieczysta Kraków v Jagiellonia1–32026-10-31

Ekstraklasa table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Lech Poznan	13	10	2	1	+21	32	Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	+11	31	Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5
3	Legia Warszawa	14	6	6	2	+10	24	Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5
4	Pogon Szczecin	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5
5	Wisla Krakow	14	7	3	4	+3	24	Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5
6	Zaglebie Lubin	14	6	5	3	+1	23	Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5
7	Piast Gliwice	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5
8	GKS Katowice	14	7	0	7	+5	21	GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5
9	Jagiellonia	13	7	0	6	0	21	Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5
10	Motor Lublin	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5
11	Korona Kielce	14	5	3	6	-7	18	Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	-7	15	Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5
13	Widzew Łódź	14	2	8	4	+1	14	Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5
14	Radomiak Radom	14	4	2	8	-12	14	Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5
15	Cracovia Krakow	14	3	3	8	-7	12	Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5
16	Raków Częstochowa	14	4	0	10	-8	12	Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5
17	Slask Wroclaw	14	2	4	8	-8	10	Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5
18	Wieczysta Kraków	14	2	2	10	-10	8	Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5