Widzew Łódź v 
Gornik Zabrze
Match statistics
| Widzew Łódź | Gornik Zabrze | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Shots | 24 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 477 | Passes | 441 |
| 52% | Possession % | 48% |
| 0.82 | xG | 1.95 |
- Over 1.5
- 71%
- Over 2.5
- 44%
- Over 3.5
- 23%
- Both score
- 50%
- Model pick
- Gornik Zabrze 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.13 – 1.32
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Widzew Łódź -0.5
Why this price?
Back Widzew Łódź -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.65 with BetVictor — Widzew Łódź must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 31% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 47%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.45. The offered 2.65 implies only 38%, so the price is 8.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.23 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Widzew Łódź 1.13, Gornik Zabrze 1.32.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Widzew Łódź | 31.4% | 3.19 | 3.20 Dafabet | 31.3% | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.5% | 3.51 | 3.50 Betfair | 28.6% | -0.1 |
| Match result | Gornik Zabrze | 40.2% | 2.49 | 2.45 Bet365 | 40.8% | -0.7 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 70.8% | 1.41 | 1.30 Betano | 76.9% | -6.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 29.2% | 3.43 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | +2.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 44.3% | 2.26 | 1.95 Bet365 | 51.3% | -7.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.79 | 1.90 Bet365 | 52.6% | +3.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 23.1% | 4.33 | 3.30 BetVictor | 30.3% | -7.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 76.9% | 1.30 | 1.36 Betfair | 73.5% | +3.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | 1.75 Bet365 | 57.1% | -6.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 49.8% | 2.01 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | +4.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Gornik Zabrze favoured against Widzew Łódź
Our model makes Widzew Łódź 31% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 28% and Gornik Zabrze at 40%. The goal projection is 1.13 for Widzew Łódź against 1.32 for Gornik Zabrze — a slight edge to Gornik Zabrze on expected output. A combined 2.45 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 11%
- 0-0 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 1-2 8%
This season
| Widzew Łódź | Gornik Zabrze | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 2-8-4 | W-D-L | 9-4-1 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 2.21 |
| 1.43 | Goals for / game | 1.64 |
| 1.36 | Goals against / game | 0.86 |
| 57% | Over 2.5 | 57% |
| 64% | BTTS | 71% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 21% | Failed to score | 14% |
| 1-5-2 | Home record | 4-2-1 |
| 1-3-2 | Away record | 5-2-0 |
| W1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Widzew Łódź · Gornik Zabrze
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.8 | Shots | 21.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 6.2 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.20 | Cards | 2.20 |
| 15.8 | Fouls | 14.2 |
| 51 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.28 | xG | 2.32 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 16.8 | Shots | 8.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.4 | Shots on target | 3.0 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 1.20 | Cards | 2.40 |
| 13.6 | Fouls | 12.2 |
| 49 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.94 | xG | 0.62 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Widzew Łódź | Metric | Gornik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.40 (better) |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.66 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.00 | Shots on target | 5.00 (better) |
| 15.75 (better) | Total shots | 13.50 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 8.25 (better) | Corners | 3.75 |
| 51.8 (better) | Possession % | 46.3 |
| 403 (better) | Passes | 388 |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.50 | Fouls | 13.75 (better) |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.25 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Widzew Łódź wins
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- Gornik Zabrze wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.33
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze1–12026-10-23
- Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze0–02026-03-22
- Gornik Zabrze v Widzew Łódź3–22025-09-21
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | +21 | 32 | Lech Poznan won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 31 | Gornik Zabrze won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | +10 | 24 | Legia Warszawa won 1 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +5 | 24 | Pogon Szczecin won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 24 | Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | +1 | 23 | Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 14 | 7 | 0 | 7 | +5 | 21 | GKS Katowice won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 21 | Jagiellonia won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 18 | Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 | Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 | Widzew Łódź won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 | Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 12 | Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Raków Częstochowa | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -8 | 12 | Raków Częstochowa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 10 | Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -10 | 8 | Wieczysta Kraków won 0 of the last 5 |