West Brom v 
Birmingham
Match statistics
| West Brom | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 494 | Passes | 419 |
| 54% | Possession % | 46% |
| 1.13 | xG | 2.60 |
- Over 1.5
- 72%
- Over 2.5
- 45%
- Over 3.5
- 24%
- Both score
- 51%
- Model pick
- West Brom 41%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.35 – 1.14
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5West Brom -0.5
Why this price?
Back West Brom -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.20 with Bet365 — West Brom must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 57%; we judge it at 51%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.97. The offered 2.20 implies only 45%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: West Brom 1.35, Birmingham 1.14.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | West Brom | 40.6% | 2.46 | 2.60 Betfair | 38.5% | +2.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.4% | 3.52 | 3.55 Betano | 28.2% | +0.3 |
| Match result | Birmingham | 30.9% | 3.23 | 3.05 Betano | 32.8% | -1.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 71.8% | 1.39 | 1.36 Bet365 | 73.5% | -1.7 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 28.2% | 3.55 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | -1.2 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 45.3% | 2.21 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1.83 Betano | 54.6% | +0.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 24.0% | 4.17 | 3.75 Bet365 | 26.7% | -2.7 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 76.0% | 1.32 | 1.36 Bet365 | 73.5% | +2.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 51.2% | 1.96 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | -4.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 48.8% | 2.05 | 2.15 Betano | 46.5% | +2.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
West Brom favoured against Birmingham
Our model makes West Brom 41% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 28% and Birmingham at 31%. The goal projection is 1.35 for West Brom against 1.14 for Birmingham — a slight edge to West Brom on expected output. A combined 2.49 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 1-0 10%
- 0-0 9%
- 0-1 9%
- 2-1 9%
This season
| West Brom | Birmingham | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 8-4-3 | W-D-L | 8-5-2 |
| 1.87 | Pts / game | 1.93 |
| 1.53 | Goals for / game | 1.87 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 0.93 |
| 47% | Over 2.5 | 73% |
| 67% | BTTS | 60% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 13% |
| 4-3-1 | Home record | 4-4-0 |
| 4-1-2 | Away record | 4-1-2 |
| W1 | Streak | W3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. West Brom · Birmingham
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.3 | Shots | 15.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 5.9 |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 11.5 |
| 58 | Possession % | 54 |
| 2.17 | xG | 1.85 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 12.1 | Shots | 12.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.1 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 5.9 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.66 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 10.1 |
| 42 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.26 | xG | 1.38 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| West Brom | Metric | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 0.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.79 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.00 | Shots on target | 5.20 (better) |
| 9.40 | Total shots | 15.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.60 (better) | Corners | 5.40 |
| 54.8 (better) | Possession % | 45.6 |
| 498 (better) | Passes | 319 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.00 (better) | Fouls | 12.20 |
| 1.60 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 | Yellow cards | 2.40 (better) |
| 1.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- West Brom wins
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- Birmingham wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 33%
- West Brom v Birmingham0–12026-10-10
- Birmingham v West Brom0–02026-02-10
- West Brom v Birmingham1–12025-11-26
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |