Watford v Burnley

20th0–422nd

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Watford		Burnley
14	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	8
6	Corners	2
8	Fouls	10
0	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	5
450	Passes	423
52%	Possession %	48%
0.64	xG	1.86

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 26%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Burnley 38%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.33

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Watford -0.5

2.68Bet365 · fair 2.42 · qualifies at 2.49+ · 1.59u

Why this price?

Back Watford -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.68 with Bet365 — Watford must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 46%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.42. The offered 2.68 implies only 37%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.59 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Watford 1.26, Burnley 1.33.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Watford	34.4%	2.91	2.95 Betano	33.9%	+0.5
Match result	Draw	28.0%	3.57	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	+0.2
Match result	Burnley	37.7%	2.66	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	-0.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.7%	1.36	1.28 Bet365	78.1%	-4.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.3%	3.80	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+3.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.7%	2.10	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-4.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.3%	1.91	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+4.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.0%	3.84	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-6.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.0%	1.35	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.3%	1.88	1.62 William Hill	61.7%	-8.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.7%	2.14	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+4.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Watford v Burnley: too close to call

Our model makes Watford 34% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 28% and Burnley at 38%. The goal projection is 1.26 for Watford against 1.33 for Burnley — almost nothing to Burnley on expected output. A combined 2.58 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 1-2 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Watford and Burnley
Watford		Burnley
15	Played	15
4-3-8	W-D-L	1-7-7
1.00	Pts / game	0.67
0.87	Goals for / game	1.47
1.53	Goals against / game	2.07
40%	Over 2.5	67%
47%	BTTS	87%
20%	Clean sheets	13%
40%	Failed to score	7%
4-2-2	Home record	0-5-2
0-1-6	Away record	1-2-5
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Watford · Burnley

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.3	Shots	12.6
3.8	Shots on target	4.4
4.0	Corners	4.1
2.75	Cards	1.88
11.8	Fouls	9.0
47	Possession %	44
1.04	xG	1.53
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.4	Shots	16.4
5.1	Shots on target	6.0
6.0	Corners	5.3
2.25	Cards	1.38
12.1	Fouls	9.1
54	Possession %	56
1.85	xG	1.94
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Watford	Metric	Burnley
0.60	Goals scored	1.00 (better)
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
0.86	Expected goals (xG)	0.92 (better)
	Big chances
2.80	Shots on target	3.40 (better)
10.20	Total shots	12.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.80	Corners	4.80 (better)
51.0 (better)	Possession %	48.2
437	Passes	444 (better)
	Tackles
12.20	Fouls	11.00 (better)
1.20 (better)	Offsides	2.80
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	2.60 (better)
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Watford wins: 0
Draws: 0
Burnley wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Watford v Burnley0–42026-10-10

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	28	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26	Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24	QPR won 2 of the last 5
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23	West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21	Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8	Preston won 1 of the last 5