Walsall v Salford City

3rd2–41st

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Walsall		Salford City
9	Shots	21
4	Shots on target	8
6	Corners	6
15	Fouls	8
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
435	Passes	377
54%	Possession %	46%
1.79	xG	2.37

Over 1.5: 66%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 46%

Model pick: Walsall 36%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.13 – 1.10

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Walsall

3.75Bet365 · fair 3.41 · qualifies at 3.51+ · 0.90u

Why this price?

Back Walsall to win at 3.75 with Bet365.

Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 25%; we judge it at 29%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.41. The offered 3.75 implies only 27%, so the price is 9.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.90 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Walsall 1.13, Salford City 1.10.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 2.5

2.05Bet365 · fair 1.90 · qualifies at 1.97+ · 1.91u

Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.05 with Bet365 — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 61% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 47%; we judge it at 53%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.90. The offered 2.05 implies only 49%, so the price is 8.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.91 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Walsall 1.13, Salford City 1.10.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Walsall	35.5%	2.81	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	+5.2
Match result	Draw	30.2%	3.31	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	+3.5
Match result	Salford City	34.3%	2.92	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-10.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	66.1%	1.51	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-13.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.9%	2.95	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+10.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	38.7%	2.58	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	-18.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	61.3%	1.63	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+13.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	18.8%	5.33	2.82 Betano	35.5%	-16.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	81.2%	1.23	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+11.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.0%	2.17	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-13.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	54.0%	1.85	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+12.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Walsall v Salford City: too close to call

Our model makes Walsall 36% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 30% and Salford City at 34%. The goal projection is 1.13 for Walsall against 1.10 for Salford City — almost nothing to Walsall on expected output. A combined 2.24 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 11%; 0-0 11%; 0-1 11%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Walsall and Salford City
Walsall		Salford City
13	Played	14
5-7-1	W-D-L	10-1-3
1.69	Pts / game	2.21
1.62	Goals for / game	1.79
0.92	Goals against / game	1.07
46%	Over 2.5	57%
54%	BTTS	57%
46%	Clean sheets	29%
23%	Failed to score	14%
3-2-1	Home record	6-0-1
2-5-0	Away record	4-1-2
W1	Streak	W8

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Walsall · Salford City

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.7	Shots	14.1
5.0	Shots on target	4.9
6.0	Corners	5.4
2.33	Cards	1.86
12.7	Fouls	10.0
56	Possession %	52
1.78	xG	1.35
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
18.7	Shots	11.6
7.0	Shots on target	3.0
5.3	Corners	5.9
1.50	Cards	1.86
11.2	Fouls	13.3
45	Possession %	48
2.03	xG	1.05
6 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Walsall	Metric	Salford City
1.50	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.25	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.50	Expected goals (xG)	1.61 (better)
	Big chances
4.50	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
12.50	Total shots	14.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.50	Corners	5.60 (better)
53.5	Possession %	53.6 (better)
454 (better)	Passes	428
	Tackles
9.25	Fouls	8.80 (better)
2.25	Offsides	1.80 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	1.60
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Walsall wins: 1
Draws: 0
Salford City wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Walsall v Salford City2–42026-10-26
Salford City v Walsall1–02026-03-10
Walsall v Salford City1–02025-08-23

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5