VVV Venlo won 0 of the last 1L0–2Vitesse won 1 of the last 1W
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
VVV Venlo
Vitesse
11
Shots
14
4
Shots on target
4
8
Corners
4
16
Fouls
14
4
Yellow cards
5
1
Red cards
1
0
Offsides
3
374
Passes
354
51%
Possession %
49%
—
xG
—
33%
22%
45%
1 · VVV VenloXVitesse · 2
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
50%
Both score
71%
Model pick
Vitesse 45%
Likely score
1-1 9%
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.99
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
VVV Venlo
32.8%
3.05
2.17 Dafabet
46.1%
-13.3
Match result
Draw
22.3%
4.49
3.90 Bet365
25.6%
-3.4
Match result
Vitesse
44.9%
2.23
3.25 Bet365
30.8%
+14.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
88.6%
1.13
1.15 Betano
87.0%
+1.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
11.4%
8.79
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
-5.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
71.1%
1.41
1.47 Betano
68.0%
+3.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
28.9%
3.46
2.70 Bet365
37.0%
-8.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
50.2%
1.99
2.25 Bet365
44.4%
+5.7
Total goals
Under 3.5
49.8%
2.01
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-10.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
70.8%
1.41
1.44 Bet365
69.4%
+1.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
29.2%
3.43
2.80 Betfair
35.7%
-6.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Vitesse favoured against VVV Venlo
Our model makes VVV Venlo 33% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 22% and Vitesse at 45%. The goal projection is 1.69 for VVV Venlo against 1.99 for Vitesse — a clear edge to Vitesse on expected output. A combined 3.68 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 71%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 9%
1-2 8%
2-1 7%
2-2 7%
1-3 6%
This season
Season records for VVV Venlo and Vitesse
VVV Venlo
Vitesse
1
Played
1
0-0-1
W-D-L
1-0-0
0.00
Pts / game
3.00
0.00
Goals for / game
2.00
2.00
Goals against / game
0.00
0%
Over 2.5
0%
0%
BTTS
0%
0%
Clean sheets
100%
100%
Failed to score
0%
0-0-1
Home record
0-0-0
0-0-0
Away record
1-0-0
L1
Streak
W1
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. VVV Venlo · Vitesse
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
Season per-match averages, produced
11.0
Shots
14.0
4.0
Shots on target
4.0
8.0
Corners
4.0
5.00
Cards
6.00
16.0
Fouls
14.0
51
Possession %
49
—
xG
—
1 matches
sample
1 matches
Conceded
Season per-match averages, conceded
14.0
Shots
11.0
4.0
Shots on target
4.0
4.0
Corners
8.0
6.00
Cards
5.00
14.0
Fouls
16.0
49
Possession %
51
—
xG
—
1 matches
sample
1 matches
Form comparison
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
VVV Venlo
Metric
Vitesse
2.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.60
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
2.17 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.36
—
Big chances *
—
6.80 (better)
Shots on target
3.40
18.60 (better)
Total shots
14.20
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.80 (better)
Corners
6.20
52.8 (better)
Possession %
42.2
432 (better)
Passes
338
—
Tackles
—
14.40
Fouls
14.40
2.40 (better)
Offsides
2.80
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.60 (better)
Yellow cards
3.50
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
VVV Venlo v 
Vitesse