Vvsb v EVV

4–0

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Vvsb		EVV
20	Shots	8
7	Shots on target	3
8	Corners	3
11	Fouls	7
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	1
1	Offsides	0
441	Passes	359
56%	Possession %	44%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: EVV 43%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.51 – 1.76

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Vvsb	32.7%	3.06	1.52 Dafabet	65.8%	-33.1
Match result	Draw	24.0%	4.17	4.80 Dafabet	20.8%	+3.1
Match result	EVV	43.4%	2.31	5.75 Bet365	17.4%	+26.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.3%	1.19	1.11 Bet365	90.1%	-5.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.7%	6.36	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	+0.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.4%	1.58	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-8.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.6%	2.73	2.88 Bet365	34.7%	+1.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	41.3%	2.42	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-8.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	58.7%	1.70	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+3.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.0%	1.54	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-0.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	35.0%	2.86	2.50 Betfair	40.0%	-5.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

EVV favoured against Vvsb

Our model makes Vvsb 33% to win this KNVB Beker fixture, with the draw at 24% and EVV at 43%. The goal projection is 1.51 for Vvsb against 1.76 for EVV — a clear edge to EVV on expected output. A combined 3.27 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Vvsb and EVV
Vvsb		EVV
3	Played	3
3-0-0	W-D-L	2-0-1
3.00	Pts / game	2.00
2.33	Goals for / game	2.00
0.00	Goals against / game	2.00
33%	Over 2.5	100%
0%	BTTS	67%
100%	Clean sheets	0%
0%	Failed to score	33%
2-0-0	Home record	1-0-0
1-0-0	Away record	1-0-1
W3	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Vvsb · EVV

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
20.0	Shots	8.0
7.0	Shots on target	3.0
8.0	Corners	3.0
3.00	Cards	2.00
11.0	Fouls	7.0
56	Possession %	44
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.0	Shots	20.0
3.0	Shots on target	7.0
3.0	Corners	8.0
2.00	Cards	3.00
7.0	Fouls	11.0
44	Possession %	56
—	xG	—
1 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Vvsb	Metric	EVV
1.40	Goals scored	1.40
2.20	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
	Shots on target
	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners
	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards
	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Vvsb wins: 1
Draws: 0
EVV wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Vvsb v EVV4–02026-10-28