Volos NFC v Panathinaikos

14th0–11st

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Volos NFC		Panathinaikos
3	Shots	23
0	Shots on target	6
1	Corners	11
15	Fouls	13
4	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
254	Passes	565
31%	Possession %	69%
0.18	xG	2.08

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 51%
Over 3.5: 29%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Panathinaikos 56%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 0.95 – 1.77

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Volos NFC	19.4%	5.14	9.00 Bet365	11.1%	+8.3
Match result	Draw	24.4%	4.10	5.80 Dafabet	17.2%	+7.2
Match result	Panathinaikos	56.2%	1.78	1.38 Bet365	72.5%	-16.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.0%	1.32	1.20 Bet365	83.3%	-7.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.0%	4.17	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+5.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.1%	1.96	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-10.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.9%	2.04	2.60 Betano	38.5%	+10.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.0%	3.45	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-9.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.0%	1.41	1.65 Betano	60.6%	+10.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.4%	1.95	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+0.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.6%	2.06	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-3.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Panathinaikos favoured against Volos NFC

Our model makes Volos NFC 19% to win this Greek Super League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Panathinaikos at 56%. The goal projection is 0.95 for Volos NFC against 1.77 for Panathinaikos — a substantial edge to Panathinaikos on expected output. A combined 2.72 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 11%; 0-2 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Volos NFC and Panathinaikos
Volos NFC		Panathinaikos
10	Played	10
0-3-7	W-D-L	9-0-1
0.30	Pts / game	2.70
0.70	Goals for / game	2.20
1.90	Goals against / game	0.50
50%	Over 2.5	50%
60%	BTTS	40%
10%	Clean sheets	50%
40%	Failed to score	10%
0-2-3	Home record	5-0-0
0-1-4	Away record	4-0-1
L3	Streak	W4

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Volos NFC · Panathinaikos

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
6.8	Shots	17.2
2.5	Shots on target	4.7
2.3	Corners	7.2
4.00	Cards	2.70
17.2	Fouls	15.5
38	Possession %	62
0.70	xG	2.23
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.7	Shots	9.5
4.8	Shots on target	2.0
6.3	Corners	2.3
2.00	Cards	3.37
16.7	Fouls	14.2
62	Possession %	38
2.03	xG	0.88
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Volos NFC	Metric	Panathinaikos
1.20	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	0.40 (better)
0.91	Expected goals (xG)	2.00 (better)
	Big chances
3.75	Shots on target	6.25 (better)
9.50	Total shots	20.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	8.00 (better)
42.8	Possession %	62.8 (better)
312	Passes	549 (better)
	Tackles
15.75 (better)	Fouls	17.50
0.50 (better)	Offsides	1.50
	Throw-ins
3.75	Yellow cards	2.25 (better)
0.75	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Volos NFC wins: 1
Draws: 0
Panathinaikos wins: 2
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Greek Super League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Panathinaikos	10	9	0	1	+17	27	Panathinaikos won 4 of the last 5
2	Olympiakos Piraeus	10	7	2	1	+11	23	Olympiakos Piraeus won 4 of the last 5
3	AEK Athens FC	9	6	2	1	+17	20	AEK Athens FC won 4 of the last 5
4	PAOK	10	6	1	3	+6	19	PAOK won 2 of the last 5
5	Aris Thessalonikis	10	6	1	3	-1	19	Aris Thessalonikis won 4 of the last 5
6	OFI	10	5	2	3	+2	17	OFI won 2 of the last 5
7	Kifisia	10	4	2	4	0	14	Kifisia won 3 of the last 5
8	Kalamata	10	3	3	4	-4	12	Kalamata won 2 of the last 5
9	Iraklis 1908	10	2	4	4	-3	10	Iraklis 1908 won 1 of the last 5
10	Panetolikos	10	3	0	7	-12	9	Panetolikos won 0 of the last 5
11	Asteras Tripolis	10	1	4	5	-9	7	Asteras Tripolis won 1 of the last 5
12	Atromitos	9	1	3	5	-3	6	Atromitos won 1 of the last 5
13	Levadiakos	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Levadiakos won 1 of the last 5
14	Volos NFC	10	0	3	7	-12	3	Volos NFC won 0 of the last 5