Vitoria v 
Chapecoense-sc
Match statistics
| Vitoria | Chapecoense-sc | |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| — | Offsides | — |
| 502 | Passes | 464 |
| 52% | Possession % | 48% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 59%
- Over 3.5
- 37%
- Both score
- 60%
- Model pick
- Vitoria 50%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.81 – 1.25
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Chapecoense-sc
Why this price?
Back Chapecoense-sc to win at 5.00 with Betfair.
Our model puts the chance at 26% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 20%; we judge it at 22%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 4.53. The offered 5.00 implies only 20%, so the price is 10.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.65 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Vitoria 1.81, Chapecoense-sc 1.25.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Over 3.5
Why this price?
Back over 3.5 goals at 3.20 with Bet365 — 4 goals or more in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 30%; we judge it at 33%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.07. The offered 3.20 implies only 31%, so the price is 4.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.48 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Vitoria 1.81, Chapecoense-sc 1.25.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Vitoria | 49.8% | 2.01 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -10.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.3% | 4.11 | 4.40 Dafabet | 22.7% | +1.6 |
| Match result | Chapecoense-sc | 25.8% | 3.87 | 7.00 Betano | 14.3% | +11.6 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 81.6% | 1.23 | 1.28 Bet365 | 78.1% | +3.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 18.4% | 5.43 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | -6.0 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.70 | 1.85 Bet365 | 54.1% | +4.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 41.0% | 2.44 | 2.02 Betano | 49.5% | -8.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 36.6% | 2.73 | 3.20 Bet365 | 31.3% | +5.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | 1.40 Bet365 | 71.4% | -8.0 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 60.3% | 1.66 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | +7.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 39.7% | 2.52 | 1.95 Bet365 | 51.3% | -11.6 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Vitoria favoured against Chapecoense-sc
Our model makes Vitoria 50% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 24% and Chapecoense-sc at 26%. The goal projection is 1.81 for Vitoria against 1.25 for Chapecoense-sc — a substantial edge to Vitoria on expected output. A combined 3.06 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 10%
- 1-0 8%
- 2-0 8%
- 1-2 7%
This season
| Vitoria | Chapecoense-sc | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Played | 33 |
| 10-8-16 | W-D-L | 4-9-20 |
| 1.12 | Pts / game | 0.64 |
| 1.03 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.50 | Goals against / game | 2.06 |
| 41% | Over 2.5 | 61% |
| 41% | BTTS | 64% |
| 32% | Clean sheets | 6% |
| 32% | Failed to score | 33% |
| 10-2-5 | Home record | 3-5-8 |
| 0-6-11 | Away record | 1-4-12 |
| L2 | Streak | L2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Vitoria · Chapecoense-sc
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.4 | Shots | 11.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 3.5 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.77 | Cards | 1.83 |
| 11.6 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 47 | Possession % | 43 |
| 0.93 | xG | 0.78 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 15.7 | Shots | 17.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 7.7 |
| 5.9 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.29 | Cards | 0.83 |
| 16.7 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 53 | Possession % | 57 |
| 1.64 | xG | 2.00 |
| 7 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Vitoria | Metric | Chapecoense-sc |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.32 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.40 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.80 (better) | Shots on target | 4.25 |
| 14.00 | Total shots | 14.75 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.80 (better) | Corners | 3.75 |
| 42.8 | Possession % | 45.5 (better) |
| 368 | Passes | 437 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.40 (better) | Fouls | 15.25 |
| 2.20 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.75 |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Vitoria wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Chapecoense-sc wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 50%
- Vitoria v Chapecoense-sc4–02026-10-07
- Chapecoense-sc v Vitoria1–12026-04-05
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 | Flamengo won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | +39 | 73 | Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | +7 | 60 | Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | +13 | 57 | Fluminense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +8 | 54 | Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | +5 | 53 | Bahia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +4 | 50 | Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | +5 | 47 | RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | +1 | 47 | Santos won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 44 | Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 42 | Botafogo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Coritiba | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | -11 | 42 | Coritiba won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Vasco DA Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 41 | Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 | Mirassol won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -4 | 38 | Internacional won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Vitoria | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -16 | 38 | Vitoria won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -6 | 37 | Corinthians won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 37 | Gremio won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -20 | 29 | Remo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | -35 | 21 | Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5 |