Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia

5th0–04th

06:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Vissel Kobe		Machida Zelvia
18	Shots	19
6	Shots on target	7
8	Corners	4
6	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
399	Passes	403
50%	Possession %	50%
1.33	xG	2.00

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 44%
Over 3.5: 23%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Machida Zelvia 37%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.21 – 1.24

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Vissel Kobe -0.5

2.37Betano · fair 2.14 · qualifies at 2.20+ · 1.99u

Why this price?

Back Vissel Kobe -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.37 with Betano — Vissel Kobe must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 35% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 55%; we judge it at 47%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.14. The offered 2.37 implies only 42%, so the price is 10.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.99 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Vissel Kobe 1.21, Machida Zelvia 1.24.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.2%	4.32	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-1.2
Match result	Vissel Kobe	34.9%	2.87	2.45 Betano	40.8%	-6.0
Match result	Draw	28.6%	3.49	3.30 BetVictor	30.3%	-1.7
Match result	Machida Zelvia	36.5%	2.74	3.05 Dafabet	32.8%	+3.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	70.9%	1.41	1.40 Betfair	71.4%	-0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	29.1%	3.43	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-1.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	44.3%	2.26	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-1.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	55.7%	1.80	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	76.8%	1.30	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	-3.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.5%	1.98	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-0.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.5%	2.02	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-0.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia: too close to call

Our model makes Vissel Kobe 35% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Machida Zelvia at 37%. The goal projection is 1.21 for Vissel Kobe against 1.24 for Machida Zelvia — almost nothing to Machida Zelvia on expected output. A combined 2.45 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 10%; 1-0 10%; 0-0 9%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Vissel Kobe and Machida Zelvia
Vissel Kobe		Machida Zelvia
14	Played	14
8-3-3	W-D-L	8-5-1
1.93	Pts / game	2.07
1.64	Goals for / game	2.14
1.00	Goals against / game	0.71
57%	Over 2.5	57%
50%	BTTS	50%
43%	Clean sheets	50%
14%	Failed to score	21%
4-3-0	Home record	3-3-1
4-0-3	Away record	5-2-0
D1	Streak	D3

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Vissel Kobe · Machida Zelvia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.7	Shots	15.3
5.3	Shots on target	6.7
5.0	Corners	5.2
0.50	Cards	1.17
6.3	Fouls	10.2
52	Possession %	58
1.57	xG	1.75
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.5	Shots	15.0
6.2	Shots on target	5.0
5.5	Corners	5.3
1.50	Cards	1.00
10.8	Fouls	12.3
49	Possession %	43
1.65	xG	0.94
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Vissel Kobe	Metric	Machida Zelvia
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.00	Goals conceded	1.00
1.70	Expected goals (xG)	2.07 (better)
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.67
15.50 (better)	Total shots	13.67
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	5.67 (better)
49.0	Possession %	57.0 (better)
434	Passes	527 (better)
	Tackles
8.00 (better)	Fouls	10.00
0.50 (better)	Offsides	1.67
	Throw-ins
0.50 (better)	Yellow cards	0.67
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Vissel Kobe wins: 0
Draws: 1
Machida Zelvia wins: 0
Goals / game: 0.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Vissel Kobe v Machida Zelvia0–02026-10-24

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5