Virtus Entella v Avellino

16th1–16th

19:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Virtus Entella		Avellino
11	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	2
1	Corners	4
15	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
315	Passes	556
36%	Possession %	64%
0.61	xG	0.88

Over 1.5: 72%
Over 2.5: 46%
Over 3.5: 24%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Virtus Entella 42%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.39 – 1.12

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Avellino

3.95Betano · fair 3.75 · qualifies at 3.86+ · 0.45u

Why this price?

Back Avellino to win at 3.95 with Betano.

Our model puts the chance at 30% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 25%; we judge it at 27%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.75. The offered 3.95 implies only 25%, so the price is 5.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.45 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Virtus Entella 1.39, Avellino 1.12.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Virtus Entella	42.5%	2.36	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-5.2
Match result	Draw	27.9%	3.58	3.35 Dafabet	29.9%	-1.9
Match result	Avellino	29.6%	3.38	4.10 Bet365	24.4%	+5.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.1%	1.39	1.40 Betano	71.4%	+0.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.9%	3.58	3.10 Betfair	32.3%	-4.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	45.8%	2.18	2.20 Betano	45.5%	+0.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	54.2%	1.85	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	24.4%	4.10	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+0.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	75.6%	1.32	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-3.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.2%	1.95	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-0.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.8%	2.05	1.91 Betfair	52.4%	-3.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Virtus Entella favoured against Avellino

Our model makes Virtus Entella 42% to win this Serie B fixture, with the draw at 28% and Avellino at 30%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Virtus Entella against 1.12 for Avellino — a clear edge to Virtus Entella on expected output. A combined 2.51 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 11%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 9%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Virtus Entella and Avellino
Virtus Entella		Avellino
11	Played	11
2-4-5	W-D-L	4-4-3
0.91	Pts / game	1.45
1.00	Goals for / game	1.45
1.27	Goals against / game	1.00
36%	Over 2.5	36%
55%	BTTS	64%
9%	Clean sheets	27%
45%	Failed to score	9%
0-3-3	Home record	3-1-2
2-1-2	Away record	1-3-1
L2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Virtus Entella · Avellino

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.2	Shots	16.7
3.8	Shots on target	4.7
3.7	Corners	5.2
3.17	Cards	1.67
13.7	Fouls	9.5
49	Possession %	54
1.04	xG	1.53
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.7	Shots	14.5
3.0	Shots on target	3.8
3.2	Corners	4.8
2.33	Cards	1.67
15.0	Fouls	13.0
51	Possession %	46
0.99	xG	1.17
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Virtus Entella	Metric	Avellino
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
1.29	Expected goals (xG)	1.32 (better)
	Big chances
4.40 (better)	Shots on target	3.60
15.40 (better)	Total shots	12.40
	Touches in opp. box
4.00 (better)	Corners	2.40
51.6 (better)	Possession %	47.0
436 (better)	Passes	410
	Tackles
13.40	Fouls	10.00 (better)
3.00	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.20
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Virtus Entella wins: 0
Draws: 1
Avellino wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Serie B table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27	Palermo won 3 of the last 5
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23	Modena won 3 of the last 5
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20	Ascoli won 2 of the last 5
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19	Mantova won 1 of the last 5
5	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16	Hellas Verona won 2 of the last 5
6	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16	Avellino won 1 of the last 5
7	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16	Benevento won 1 of the last 5
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16	Pisa won 1 of the last 5
9	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	16	Juve Stabia won 3 of the last 5
10	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Cremonese won 3 of the last 5
11	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15	Sudtirol won 0 of the last 5
12	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15	Padova won 2 of the last 5
13	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15	Cesena won 2 of the last 5
14	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11	Sampdoria won 2 of the last 5
15	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11	Arezzo won 1 of the last 5
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10	Virtus Entella won 1 of the last 5
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10	Carrarese won 2 of the last 5
18	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9	Empoli won 0 of the last 5
19	Vicenza Virtus	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Vicenza Virtus won 1 of the last 5
20	Catanzaro	10	1	3	6	-11	6	Catanzaro won 0 of the last 5