Viking v Fredrikstad

1st3–212th

16:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Viking		Fredrikstad
12	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	2
6	Corners	0
15	Fouls	11
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
432	Passes	594
43%	Possession %	57%
1.82	xG	0.49

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 54%

Model pick: Viking 72%
Likely score: 2-0 11%
Expected goals: 2.49 – 0.87

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Viking	72.4%	1.38	1.35 William Hill	74.1%	-1.7
Match result	Draw	17.0%	5.89	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	+0.3
Match result	Fredrikstad	10.7%	9.38	9.00 Betfair	11.1%	-0.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.1%	1.18	1.12 Betano	89.3%	-4.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.9%	6.73	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+0.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	65.1%	1.54	1.39 Betano	71.9%	-6.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	34.9%	2.87	3.20 Betfair	31.3%	+3.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	43.1%	2.32	1.98 Betano	50.5%	-7.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	56.9%	1.76	1.82 Betano	54.9%	+1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.5%	1.87	1.70 Betano	58.8%	-5.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.5%	2.15	2.25 William Hill	44.4%	+2.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Viking favoured against Fredrikstad

Our model makes Viking 72% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 17% and Fredrikstad at 11%. The goal projection is 2.49 for Viking against 0.87 for Fredrikstad — a commanding edge to Viking on expected output. A combined 3.35 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Viking is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 28% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 11%; 2-1 9%; 3-0 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-1 8%

This season

Season records for Viking and Fredrikstad
Viking		Fredrikstad
26	Played	26
20-2-4	W-D-L	8-6-12
2.38	Pts / game	1.15
2.65	Goals for / game	1.19
1.04	Goals against / game	1.77
77%	Over 2.5	58%
69%	BTTS	65%
27%	Clean sheets	12%
4%	Failed to score	23%
13-0-0	Home record	5-4-4
7-2-4	Away record	3-2-8
W1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Viking · Fredrikstad

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.5	Shots	15.3
6.3	Shots on target	4.5
5.3	Corners	5.0
2.17	Cards	1.67
12.2	Fouls	11.0
44	Possession %	51
2.03	xG	1.43
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.8	Shots	14.5
4.2	Shots on target	5.5
5.3	Corners	5.8
1.50	Cards	2.67
10.0	Fouls	10.2
56	Possession %	49
1.39	xG	1.89
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Viking	Metric	Fredrikstad
3.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.00
2.77 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.90
	Big chances
7.25 (better)	Shots on target	2.67
17.00 (better)	Total shots	10.67
	Touches in opp. box
5.75 (better)	Corners	5.00
40.8	Possession %	51.0 (better)
391	Passes	548 (better)
	Tackles
13.00	Fouls	9.67 (better)
1.50	Offsides	0.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.33 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Viking wins: 3
Draws: 0
Fredrikstad wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Viking v Fredrikstad3–22026-10-17
Fredrikstad v Viking1–22026-04-25
Fredrikstad v Viking0–12025-11-23

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5