Viborg v FC Midtjylland

3rd1–22nd

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Viborg		FC Midtjylland
19	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	6
3	Corners	3
16	Fouls	15
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
420	Passes	416
51%	Possession %	49%
1.56	xG	0.84

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 56%
Over 3.5: 34%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: FC Midtjylland 46%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.67

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Viborg -0.5

2.90Betano · fair 2.68 · qualifies at 2.76+ · 1.10u

Why this price?

Back Viborg -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.90 with Betano — Viborg must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 28% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 43%; we judge it at 37%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.68. The offered 2.90 implies only 34%, so the price is 8.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.10 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Viborg 1.26, FC Midtjylland 1.67.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.1%	2.27	2.52 Betano	39.7%	+4.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	33.5%	2.98	2.42 Betano	41.3%	-7.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	66.5%	1.50	1.65 Betano	60.6%	+5.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.7%	1.70	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-8.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.3%	2.42	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	+4.3
Match result	Viborg	28.2%	3.55	2.90 Bet365	34.5%	-6.3
Match result	Draw	25.4%	3.93	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-0.9
Match result	FC Midtjylland	46.4%	2.16	2.43 Dafabet	41.2%	+5.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	79.6%	1.26	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-5.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	20.4%	4.90	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+2.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.9%	1.79	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-7.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Midtjylland favoured against Viborg

Our model makes Viborg 28% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 25% and FC Midtjylland at 46%. The goal projection is 1.26 for Viborg against 1.67 for FC Midtjylland — a clear edge to FC Midtjylland on expected output. A combined 2.92 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-2 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Viborg and FC Midtjylland
Viborg		FC Midtjylland
14	Played	14
8-2-4	W-D-L	9-5-0
1.86	Pts / game	2.29
1.57	Goals for / game	2.07
0.93	Goals against / game	1.21
50%	Over 2.5	64%
50%	BTTS	86%
36%	Clean sheets	14%
21%	Failed to score	0%
5-0-2	Home record	5-2-0
3-2-2	Away record	4-3-0
W2	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Viborg · FC Midtjylland

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	14.6
5.3	Shots on target	5.0
5.7	Corners	4.6
1.67	Cards	1.40
10.7	Fouls	11.6
49	Possession %	49
2.01	xG	2.01
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.8	Shots	15.8
3.8	Shots on target	5.2
4.5	Corners	3.6
2.33	Cards	2.40
12.8	Fouls	14.2
51	Possession %	51
1.26	xG	1.82
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Viborg	Metric	FC Midtjylland
1.80	Goals scored	3.20 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
2.39 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.55
	Big chances
4.67 (better)	Shots on target	4.25
16.67 (better)	Total shots	11.75
	Touches in opp. box
5.67 (better)	Corners	4.00
47.3 (better)	Possession %	41.5
456 (better)	Passes	334
	Tackles
11.67	Fouls	11.25 (better)
1.50	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
0.67 (better)	Yellow cards	1.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Viborg wins: 0
Draws: 3
FC Midtjylland wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.80
Over 2.5: 60%
Both score: 80%

Viborg v FC Midtjylland1–22026-10-19
FC Midtjylland v Viborg3–32026-05-04
Viborg v FC Midtjylland1–12026-03-22
Viborg v FC Midtjylland3–32025-12-07
FC Midtjylland v Viborg2–02025-09-20

Danish Superliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Copenhagen	14	10	2	2	+17	32	FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 5
2	FC Midtjylland	14	9	5	0	+12	32	FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5
3	Viborg	14	8	2	4	+9	26	Viborg won 3 of the last 5
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	6	5	3	+8	23	FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5
5	Brondby	14	7	1	6	+2	22	Brondby won 3 of the last 5
6	Odense	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Odense won 2 of the last 5
7	AC Horsens	14	4	4	6	0	16	AC Horsens won 1 of the last 5
8	Aarhus	14	3	6	5	-2	15	Aarhus won 3 of the last 5
9	Silkeborg	14	3	6	5	-6	15	Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	-10	11	Lyngby won 1 of the last 5
11	Randers FC	14	3	2	9	-13	11	Randers FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Sonderjyske	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Sonderjyske won 1 of the last 5