Viborg v AC Horsens

3rd1–07th

13:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Viborg		AC Horsens
22	Shots	13
9	Shots on target	2
10	Corners	3
6	Fouls	16
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
484	Passes	416
54%	Possession %	46%
3.20	xG	0.72

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 40%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Viborg 48%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.86 – 1.37

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Viborg	48.4%	2.06	1.57 Betano	63.7%	-15.2
Match result	Draw	23.6%	4.23	4.50 Betano	22.2%	+1.4
Match result	AC Horsens	27.9%	3.58	5.75 Bet365	17.4%	+10.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.7%	1.20	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-0.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.3%	6.13	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	-1.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	62.5%	1.60	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+0.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	37.5%	2.67	2.47 Betano	40.5%	-3.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	40.3%	2.48	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+1.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.7%	1.68	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-2.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.4%	1.58	1.70 William Hill	58.8%	+4.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.6%	2.73	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-7.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Viborg favoured against AC Horsens

Our model makes Viborg 48% to win this Danish Superliga fixture, with the draw at 24% and AC Horsens at 28%. The goal projection is 1.86 for Viborg against 1.37 for AC Horsens — a clear edge to Viborg on expected output. A combined 3.22 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 7%; 1-0 7%; 2-0 7%

This season

Season records for Viborg and AC Horsens
Viborg		AC Horsens
14	Played	14
8-2-4	W-D-L	4-4-6
1.86	Pts / game	1.14
1.57	Goals for / game	1.64
0.93	Goals against / game	1.64
50%	Over 2.5	57%
50%	BTTS	64%
36%	Clean sheets	7%
21%	Failed to score	36%
5-0-2	Home record	2-3-2
3-2-2	Away record	2-1-4
W2	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Viborg · AC Horsens

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.8	Shots	14.8
5.3	Shots on target	4.8
5.7	Corners	3.2
1.67	Cards	2.17
10.7	Fouls	18.3
49	Possession %	49
2.01	xG	1.76
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.8	Shots	15.8
3.8	Shots on target	5.7
4.5	Corners	5.7
2.33	Cards	1.70
12.8	Fouls	9.3
51	Possession %	51
1.26	xG	1.96
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Viborg	Metric	AC Horsens
1.80	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	1.60
2.11 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.78
	Big chances
4.67	Shots on target	5.67 (better)
20.00 (better)	Total shots	15.67
	Touches in opp. box
4.67 (better)	Corners	3.67
49.0	Possession %	53.0 (better)
455	Passes	506 (better)
	Tackles
12.00 (better)	Fouls	17.33
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.67
	Throw-ins
1.33 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Viborg wins: 2
Draws: 0
AC Horsens wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Viborg v AC Horsens1–02026-11-01
AC Horsens v Viborg2–32026-08-28

Danish Superliga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Copenhagen	14	10	2	2	+17	32	FC Copenhagen won 2 of the last 5
2	FC Midtjylland	14	9	5	0	+12	32	FC Midtjylland won 4 of the last 5
3	Viborg	14	8	2	4	+9	26	Viborg won 3 of the last 5
4	FC Nordsjaelland	14	6	5	3	+8	23	FC Nordsjaelland won 1 of the last 5
5	Brondby	14	7	1	6	+2	22	Brondby won 3 of the last 5
6	Odense	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Odense won 2 of the last 5
7	AC Horsens	14	4	4	6	0	16	AC Horsens won 1 of the last 5
8	Aarhus	14	3	6	5	-2	15	Aarhus won 3 of the last 5
9	Silkeborg	14	3	6	5	-6	15	Silkeborg won 1 of the last 5
10	Lyngby	14	2	5	7	-10	11	Lyngby won 1 of the last 5
11	Randers FC	14	3	2	9	-13	11	Randers FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Sonderjyske	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Sonderjyske won 1 of the last 5