Vianense v 
Leixoes
- Over 1.5
- 94%
- Over 2.5
- 82%
- Over 3.5
- 65%
- Both score
- 78%
- Model pick
- Vianense 53%
- Likely score
- 2-1 7%
- Expected goals
- 2.58 – 1.87
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Vianense | 53.1% | 1.88 | 5.75 BetVictor | 17.4% | +35.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 19.2% | 5.22 | 4.00 Bet365 | 25.0% | -5.8 |
| Match result | Leixoes | 27.7% | 3.61 | 1.60 William Hill | 62.5% | -34.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 93.9% | 1.06 | 1.28 Bet365 | 78.1% | +15.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 6.1% | 16.43 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | -22.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.90 Bet365 | 52.6% | +29.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 17.9% | 5.58 | 1.90 Bet365 | 52.6% | -34.7 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 64.9% | 1.54 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | +36.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 35.1% | 2.85 | 1.33 Bet365 | 75.2% | -40.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 78.5% | 1.27 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | +30.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 21.5% | 4.65 | 1.85 William Hill | 54.1% | -32.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Vianense favoured against Leixoes
Our model makes Vianense 53% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 19% and Leixoes at 28%. The goal projection is 2.58 for Vianense against 1.87 for Leixoes — a substantial edge to Vianense on expected output. A combined 4.45 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 82% and both teams to score at 78%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 3-1 6%
- 1-1 6%
- 3-2 6%
This season
| Vianense | Leixoes | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Played | 2 |
| 3-0-0 | W-D-L | 1-0-1 |
| 3.00 | Pts / game | 1.50 |
| 4.00 | Goals for / game | 2.00 |
| 0.33 | Goals against / game | 0.50 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 33% | BTTS | 0% |
| 67% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 2-0-0 | Home record | 0-0-0 |
| 1-0-0 | Away record | 1-0-1 |
| W3 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Vianense · Leixoes
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Conceded
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Form comparison
| Vianense | Metric | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 (better) | Goals scored | 2.20 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| Shots on target | 5.67 | |
| Total shots | 11.33 | |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| Corners | 3.67 | |
| Possession % | 53.7 | |
| Passes | ||
| Tackles | ||
| Fouls | ||
| Offsides | ||
| Throw-ins | ||
| Yellow cards | 3.00 | |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Vianense wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Leixoes wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Vianense v Leixoes1–02026-10-17