VfL Bochum v 
FSV Mainz 05
Match statistics
| VfL Bochum | FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 443 | Passes | 467 |
| 48% | Possession % | 52% |
| 1.44 | xG | 0.52 |
- Over 1.5
- 79%
- Over 2.5
- 55%
- Over 3.5
- 32%
- Both score
- 53%
- Model pick
- FSV Mainz 05 60%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 0.95 – 1.93
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5FSV Mainz 05 +0.25
Why this price?
Back FSV Mainz 05 +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.42 with Bet365 — FSV Mainz 05 starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 80% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 74%; we judge it at 77%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.30. The offered 1.42 implies only 70%, so the price is 9.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: VfL Bochum 0.95, FSV Mainz 05 1.93.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | VfL Bochum | 17.5% | 5.72 | 5.30 Betano | 18.9% | -1.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.8% | 4.39 | 4.40 Dafabet | 22.7% | +0.0 |
| Match result | FSV Mainz 05 | 59.7% | 1.67 | 1.73 Dafabet | 57.8% | +1.9 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | 1.20 Betano | 83.3% | -4.8 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 21.4% | 4.67 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | +1.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | 1.62 Betano | 61.7% | -7.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 45.3% | 2.21 | 2.42 Betano | 41.3% | +4.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 32.4% | 3.09 | 2.50 Betano | 40.0% | -7.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | +3.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 52.8% | 1.90 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -7.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 47.2% | 2.12 | 2.38 BetVictor | 42.0% | +5.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FSV Mainz 05 favoured against VfL Bochum
Our model makes VfL Bochum 17% to win this DFB Pokal fixture, with the draw at 23% and FSV Mainz 05 at 60%. The goal projection is 0.95 for VfL Bochum against 1.93 for FSV Mainz 05 — a commanding edge to FSV Mainz 05 on expected output. A combined 2.87 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 0-2 10%
- 0-1 10%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-3 7%
This season
| VfL Bochum | FSV Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 9 |
| 4-2-5 | W-D-L | 3-1-5 |
| 1.27 | Pts / game | 1.11 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 2.00 |
| 1.18 | Goals against / game | 2.11 |
| 36% | Over 2.5 | 78% |
| 55% | BTTS | 67% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 36% | Failed to score | 11% |
| 1-2-3 | Home record | 0-1-4 |
| 3-0-2 | Away record | 3-0-1 |
| W2 | Streak | L3 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. VfL Bochum · FSV Mainz 05
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.0 | Shots | 13.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.3 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 5.7 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.14 | Cards | 2.49 |
| 13.1 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 51 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.42 | xG | 1.68 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 12.9 | Shots | 15.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.4 | Shots on target | 6.1 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.71 | Cards | 1.71 |
| 8.0 | Fouls | 9.7 |
| 49 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.40 | xG | 1.87 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| VfL Bochum | Metric | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 2.40 (better) |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.00 |
| 1.14 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.50 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.75 | Shots on target | 6.00 (better) |
| 15.50 | Total shots | 17.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.25 (better) | Corners | 3.25 |
| 56.0 (better) | Possession % | 52.0 |
| 493 (better) | Passes | 465 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.25 (better) | Fouls | 14.00 |
| 2.25 (better) | Offsides | 2.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.25 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.50 |
| 0.50 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- VfL Bochum wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- FSV Mainz 05 wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 052–02026-10-27