Velez Sarsfield v Platense

22:00 UTCVelez Sarsfield7thPlatense26th

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 40%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 43%

Model pick: Velez Sarsfield 54%
Likely score: 1-0 15%
Expected goals: 1.51 – 0.78

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Velez Sarsfield	54.0%	1.85	—	—	—
Match result	Draw	27.4%	3.64	—	—	—
Match result	Platense	18.6%	5.39	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.5%	1.48	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 1.5	32.5%	3.07	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 2.5	40.2%	2.49	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 2.5	59.8%	1.67	—	—	—
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.9%	5.02	—	—	—
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.1%	1.25	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	42.9%	2.33	—	—	—
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	57.1%	1.75	—	—	—

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Velez Sarsfield favoured against Platense

Our model makes Velez Sarsfield 54% to win this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture, with the draw at 27% and Platense at 19%. The goal projection is 1.51 for Velez Sarsfield against 0.78 for Platense — a substantial edge to Velez Sarsfield on expected output. A combined 2.29 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 15%; 1-1 13%; 2-0 12%; 0-0 11%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for Velez Sarsfield and Platense
Velez Sarsfield		Platense
27	Played	26
12-12-3	W-D-L	5-10-11
1.78	Pts / game	0.96
1.22	Goals for / game	0.73
0.81	Goals against / game	1.15
26%	Over 2.5	31%
56%	BTTS	42%
37%	Clean sheets	27%
15%	Failed to score	50%
8-4-2	Home record	2-5-6
4-8-1	Away record	3-5-5
W1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Velez Sarsfield · Platense

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Conceded

No full-match statistics on record yet this season.

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Velez Sarsfield	Metric	Platense
1.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
0.48	Expected goals (xG)	0.71 (better)
	Big chances
4.25 (better)	Shots on target	2.80
13.25 (better)	Total shots	11.20
	Touches in opp. box
3.75	Corners	6.00 (better)
56.3 (better)	Possession %	52.2
475 (better)	Passes	403
	Tackles
11.75 (better)	Fouls	13.60
1.50 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to headFull record →

Velez Sarsfield wins: 1
Draws: 1
Platense wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Platense v Velez Sarsfield0–22026-03-14
Platense v Velez Sarsfield0–02025-07-19

Liga Profesional Argentina table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Belgrano Cordoba	30	14	10	6	+12	52	Belgrano Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
2	Argentinos JRS	29	14	10	5	+10	52	Argentinos JRS won 1 of the last 5
3	Independ. Rivadavia	27	15	6	6	+14	51	Independ. Rivadavia won 3 of the last 5
4	Rosario Central	29	14	8	7	+8	50	Rosario Central won 2 of the last 5
5	River Plate	30	15	4	11	+13	49	River Plate won 3 of the last 5
6	Boca Juniors	27	12	12	3	+16	48	Boca Juniors won 3 of the last 5
7	Velez Sarsfield	27	12	12	3	+11	48	Velez Sarsfield won 2 of the last 5
8	Gimnasia L.P.	28	14	4	10	-1	46	Gimnasia L.P. won 2 of the last 5
9	Instituto Cordoba	26	13	4	9	+6	43	Instituto Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
10	Estudiantes L.P.	27	12	5	10	+10	41	Estudiantes L.P. won 1 of the last 5
11	Independiente	27	11	8	8	+4	41	Independiente won 2 of the last 5
12	Huracan	28	9	13	6	+6	40	Huracan won 2 of the last 5
13	Lanus	27	11	7	9	+5	40	Lanus won 3 of the last 5
14	Union Santa Fe	28	10	7	11	+4	37	Union Santa Fe won 3 of the last 5
15	Defensa Y Justicia	26	9	10	7	-1	37	Defensa Y Justicia won 3 of the last 5
16	Gimnasia M.	26	10	6	10	-3	36	Gimnasia M. won 2 of the last 5
17	Sarmiento Junin	26	11	2	13	-6	35	Sarmiento Junin won 2 of the last 5
18	Talleres Cordoba	27	9	7	11	-3	34	Talleres Cordoba won 1 of the last 5
19	San Lorenzo	27	8	10	9	-4	34	San Lorenzo won 1 of the last 5
20	Racing Club	28	8	9	11	-2	33	Racing Club won 1 of the last 5
21	Barracas Central	26	8	9	9	-2	33	Barracas Central won 0 of the last 5
22	Tigre	26	7	11	8	+3	32	Tigre won 1 of the last 5
23	Newells Old Boys	26	7	10	9	-9	31	Newells Old Boys won 2 of the last 5
24	Atletico Tucuman	26	6	9	11	-4	27	Atletico Tucuman won 1 of the last 5
25	Banfield	26	7	6	13	-7	27	Banfield won 0 of the last 5
26	Platense	26	5	10	11	-11	25	Platense won 1 of the last 5
27	Central Cordoba de Santiago	26	6	6	14	-16	24	Central Cordoba de Santiago won 0 of the last 5
28	Deportivo Riestra	26	3	12	11	-9	21	Deportivo Riestra won 0 of the last 5
29	Aldosivi	26	2	10	14	-17	16	Aldosivi won 2 of the last 5
30	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	26	2	5	19	-27	11	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto won 0 of the last 5