Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5DWWLW6th1–0Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5DDWLL12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Vasteras SK FK
Mjallby AIF
22
Shots
11
9
Shots on target
3
4
Corners
5
21
Fouls
19
1
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
3
Offsides
1
474
Passes
423
52%
Possession %
48%
1.51
xG
0.88
47%
26%
27%
1 · Vasteras SK FKXMjallby AIF · 2
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
30%
Both score
56%
Model pick
Vasteras SK FK 47%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.16
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Vasteras SK FK
46.7%
2.14
2.41 Dafabet
41.5%
+5.2
Match result
Draw
26.2%
3.81
3.60 Betfair
27.8%
-1.5
Match result
Mjallby AIF
27.1%
3.69
2.88 Bet365
34.7%
-7.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
76.9%
1.30
1.25 Bet365
80.0%
-3.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
23.1%
4.32
3.90 Betano
25.6%
-2.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
52.0%
1.92
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
-3.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
48.0%
2.08
2.12 Betano
47.2%
+0.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
29.9%
3.35
3.00 Bet365
33.3%
-3.5
Total goals
Under 3.5
70.1%
1.43
1.42 Betano
70.4%
-0.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
55.5%
1.80
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-4.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
44.5%
2.25
2.30 Betano
43.5%
+1.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Vasteras SK FK favoured against Mjallby AIF
Our model makes Vasteras SK FK 47% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 26% and Mjallby AIF at 27%. The goal projection is 1.60 for Vasteras SK FK against 1.16 for Mjallby AIF — a clear edge to Vasteras SK FK on expected output. A combined 2.76 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Vasteras SK FK
Metric
Mjallby AIF
1.20 (better)
Goals scored
0.60
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
0.97
Expected goals (xG)
1.36 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.75
Shots on target
5.75 (better)
12.75
Total shots
13.50 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00
Corners
6.25 (better)
45.8 (better)
Possession %
44.3
416 (better)
Passes
389
—
Tackles
—
13.00 (better)
Fouls
16.00
2.00
Offsides
0.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.75 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.33
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Vasteras SK FK v 
Mjallby AIF