Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5DWWLW6th1–0IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5DLDWL11th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Vasteras SK FK
IF Brommapojkarna
17
Shots
17
4
Shots on target
7
5
Corners
8
11
Fouls
10
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
2
515
Passes
417
55%
Possession %
45%
1.21
xG
1.41
43%
24%
33%
1 · Vasteras SK FKXIF Brommapojkarna · 2
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
41%
Both score
65%
Model pick
Vasteras SK FK 43%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.51
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Vasteras SK FK
43.3%
2.31
2.15 Bet365
46.5%
-3.2
Match result
Draw
23.9%
4.18
3.80 Betfair
26.3%
-2.4
Match result
IF Brommapojkarna
32.7%
3.06
3.85 Dafabet
26.0%
+6.8
Total goals
Over 1.5
84.4%
1.19
1.22 Bet365
82.0%
+2.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
15.6%
6.40
4.50 Bet365
22.2%
-6.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
63.6%
1.57
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
+4.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
36.4%
2.75
2.20 Bet365
45.5%
-9.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
41.5%
2.41
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
+6.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
58.5%
1.71
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-8.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
65.1%
1.53
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
+5.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
34.9%
2.87
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
-8.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Vasteras SK FK favoured against IF Brommapojkarna
Our model makes Vasteras SK FK 43% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 24% and IF Brommapojkarna at 33%. The goal projection is 1.77 for Vasteras SK FK against 1.51 for IF Brommapojkarna — a clear edge to Vasteras SK FK on expected output. A combined 3.28 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
2-2 7%
1-0 6%
This season
Season records for Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Vasteras SK FK
Metric
IF Brommapojkarna
0.80
Goals scored
2.25 (better)
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
2.00
1.31
Expected goals (xG)
1.37 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
5.50 (better)
Shots on target
4.75
16.25 (better)
Total shots
11.50
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.75 (better)
Corners
4.00
48.5 (better)
Possession %
42.8
474 (better)
Passes
436
—
Tackles
—
12.75
Fouls
11.25 (better)
2.75
Offsides
0.67 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.33
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Vasteras SK FK v 
IF Brommapojkarna