Predicted Edge

Vasteras SK FK v Halmstad

Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 56th1–2Halmstad won 2 of the last 516th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Vasteras SK FK Halmstad
20Shots10
7Shots on target5
10Corners1
5Fouls8
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
3Offsides0
571Passes549
51%Possession %49%
2.11xG0.40
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
31%
Both score
50%
Model pick
Vasteras SK FK 61%
Likely score
2-0 11%
Expected goals
1.92 – 0.87

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 3 of 5

Halmstad +0.25

3.58Marathonbet · fair 3.39 · qualifies at 3.49+ · 0.55u
Why this price?

Back Halmstad +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.58 with Marathonbet — Halmstad starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 31% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 29%; we judge it at 30%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.39. The offered 3.58 implies only 28%, so the price is 5.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.55 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Vasteras SK FK 1.92, Halmstad 0.87.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultVasteras SK FK61.4%1.631.71 Dafabet58.5%+2.9
Match resultDraw22.6%4.424.10 Dafabet24.4%-1.8
Match resultHalmstad16.0%6.274.80 Dafabet20.8%-4.9
Total goalsOver 1.577.2%1.291.22 Betano82.0%-4.8
Total goalsUnder 1.522.8%4.394.50 Betfair22.2%+0.6
Total goalsOver 2.552.8%1.901.70 Bet36558.8%-6.1
Total goalsUnder 2.547.2%2.122.20 Betfair45.5%+1.8
Total goalsOver 3.530.5%3.272.75 BetVictor36.4%-5.8
Total goalsUnder 3.569.5%1.441.45 Betano69.0%+0.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes50.1%2.001.70 Bet36558.8%-8.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No49.9%2.002.20 William Hill45.5%+4.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Vasteras SK FK favoured against Halmstad

Our model makes Vasteras SK FK 61% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 23% and Halmstad at 16%. The goal projection is 1.92 for Vasteras SK FK against 0.87 for Halmstad — a commanding edge to Vasteras SK FK on expected output. A combined 2.79 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Vasteras SK FK is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 39% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
2-0 11%
1-0 11%
1-1 11%
2-1 10%
3-0 7%

This season

Season records for Vasteras SK FK and Halmstad
Vasteras SK FK Halmstad
28Played28
13-6-9W-D-L5-5-18
1.61Pts / game0.71
1.43Goals for / game0.71
1.36Goals against / game1.86
50%Over 2.543%
39%BTTS46%
39%Clean sheets7%
32%Failed to score46%
6-4-4Home record4-2-8
7-2-5Away record1-3-10
D1StreakW1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Vasteras SK FK · Halmstad

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.5Shots11.3
6.2Shots on target4.1
7.5Corners4.3
1.17Cards1.00
12.0Fouls11.6
55Possession %40
1.76xG0.56
6 matchessample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.7Shots16.3
3.5Shots on target4.9
4.0Corners7.0
2.00Cards0.71
12.8Fouls7.7
46Possession %60
0.98xG1.99
6 matchessample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Vasteras SK FKMetricHalmstad
1.20Goals scored1.20
0.80 (better)Goals conceded2.20
1.65 (better)Expected goals (xG)1.10
Big chances
3.75Shots on target4.50 (better)
13.25 (better)Total shots11.75
Touches in opp. box
5.00Corners5.00
45.5 (better)Possession %45.3
422Passes455 (better)
Tackles
13.00Fouls9.00 (better)
2.00Offsides0.50 (better)
Throw-ins
2.00Yellow cards1.00 (better)
0.50Red cards0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Vasteras SK FK wins
1
Draws
0
Halmstad wins
1
Goals / game
3.50
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%
Allsvenskan table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Hammarby FF281846+3758Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5
2Sirius281846+2358Sirius won 1 of the last 5
3Djurgardens IF281648+2952Djurgardens IF won 2 of the last 5
4BK Hacken2813105+1749BK Hacken won 3 of the last 5
5IF Elfsborg2812106+1146IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5
6Vasteras SK FK281369+245Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5
7Malmo FF2812511+641Malmo FF won 1 of the last 5
8AIK Stockholm281189-341AIK Stockholm won 2 of the last 5
9Gais2811710+840Gais won 3 of the last 5
10IFK Goteborg281099-1039IFK Goteborg won 0 of the last 5
11IF Brommapojkarna289811-535IF Brommapojkarna won 1 of the last 5
12Mjallby AIF2861012-1328Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5
13Kalmar FF287516-1826Kalmar FF won 2 of the last 5
14Degerfors IF285518-2520Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5
15Orgryte IS284816-2720Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5
16Halmstad285518-3220Halmstad won 2 of the last 5