Vasas v Paks

7th0–25th

12:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Vasas		Paks
9	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	9
21	Fouls	15
5	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	1
405	Passes	400
44%	Possession %	56%
0.73	xG	1.10

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 68%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 69%

Model pick: Vasas 45%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.93 – 1.59

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 3.5	46.8%	2.14	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-5.0
Total goals	Under 3.5	53.2%	1.88	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.5%	1.46	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	-5.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.5%	3.18	3.30 Betfair	30.3%	+1.1
Match result	Vasas	45.4%	2.20	2.30 Bet365	43.5%	+1.9
Match result	Draw	22.8%	4.38	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	-2.2
Match result	Paks	31.8%	3.15	2.72 Betano	36.8%	-5.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.1%	1.15	1.12 Betano	89.3%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.9%	7.75	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	-1.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.3%	1.46	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-3.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.7%	3.16	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	-0.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Vasas favoured against Paks

Our model makes Vasas 45% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 23% and Paks at 32%. The goal projection is 1.93 for Vasas against 1.59 for Paks — a clear edge to Vasas on expected output. A combined 3.52 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 7%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Vasas and Paks
Vasas		Paks
13	Played	13
4-4-5	W-D-L	6-2-5
1.23	Pts / game	1.54
1.54	Goals for / game	1.85
1.46	Goals against / game	1.69
54%	Over 2.5	62%
54%	BTTS	62%
15%	Clean sheets	31%
38%	Failed to score	8%
2-2-3	Home record	4-1-2
2-2-2	Away record	2-1-3
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Vasas · Paks

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.8	Shots	14.2
5.2	Shots on target	4.0
4.8	Corners	6.4
3.20	Cards	2.20
16.4	Fouls	15.2
49	Possession %	52
1.31	xG	1.26
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.8	Shots	14.0
4.8	Shots on target	5.6
5.8	Corners	4.2
1.60	Cards	3.20
13.8	Fouls	15.8
51	Possession %	48
1.32	xG	1.73
5 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Vasas	Metric	Paks
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.80
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.67	Expected goals (xG)	2.38 (better)
	Big chances
5.50	Shots on target	7.25 (better)
17.00	Total shots	19.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.75	Corners	7.00 (better)
53.8 (better)	Possession %	49.5
468 (better)	Passes	343
	Tackles
13.50	Fouls	10.50 (better)
2.33	Offsides	2.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.50	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Vasas wins: 0
Draws: 0
Paks wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Vasas v Paks0–22026-10-25

Hungarian NB I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Puskas Academy	13	8	0	5	+3	24	Puskas Academy won 3 of the last 5
2	Ferencvarosi TC	12	6	5	1	+12	23	Ferencvarosi TC won 3 of the last 5
3	Gyori ETO FC	13	6	5	2	+7	23	Gyori ETO FC won 2 of the last 5
4	Debreceni VSC	13	6	4	3	+6	22	Debreceni VSC won 4 of the last 5
5	Paks	13	6	2	5	+2	20	Paks won 3 of the last 5
6	Ujpest	13	5	3	5	+1	18	Ujpest won 1 of the last 5
7	Vasas	13	4	4	5	+1	16	Vasas won 0 of the last 5
8	Budapest Honved	12	3	5	4	-3	14	Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5
9	Zalaegerszegi TE	13	4	1	8	-7	13	Zalaegerszegi TE won 2 of the last 5
10	MTK Budapest	13	3	4	6	-9	13	MTK Budapest won 1 of the last 5
11	Kisvarda FC	13	2	6	5	-3	12	Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Nyiregyhaza	13	3	3	7	-10	12	Nyiregyhaza won 1 of the last 5