Predicted Edge

Varea v FC Andorra

Varea won 0 of the last 10–3FC Andorra won 1 of the last 519th
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
64%
Model pick
FC Andorra 41%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.68

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultVarea34.8%2.8826.00 Bet3653.8%+30.9
Match resultDraw24.3%4.119.00 Betfair11.1%+13.2
Match resultFC Andorra40.9%2.441.16 Betano86.2%-45.3
Total goalsOver 1.583.6%1.201.21 BetVictor82.6%+1.0
Total goalsUnder 1.516.4%6.114.50 Betfair22.2%-5.8
Total goalsOver 2.562.4%1.601.67 Bet36559.9%+2.5
Total goalsUnder 2.537.6%2.662.20 Betfair45.5%-7.8
Total goalsOver 3.540.1%2.492.75 Bet36536.4%+3.8
Total goalsUnder 3.559.9%1.671.44 Bet36569.4%-9.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes64.4%1.553.70 Betfair27.0%+37.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No35.6%2.811.33 William Hill75.2%-39.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Varea v FC Andorra: too close to call

Our model makes Varea 35% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 24% and FC Andorra at 41%. The goal projection is 1.54 for Varea against 1.68 for FC Andorra — a slight edge to FC Andorra on expected output. A combined 3.22 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
1-2 9%
2-1 8%
2-2 7%
0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Varea and FC Andorra
Varea FC Andorra
1Played12
0-0-1W-D-L3-2-7
0.00Pts / game0.92
0.00Goals for / game1.42
3.00Goals against / game1.83
100%Over 2.558%
0%BTTS58%
0%Clean sheets17%
100%Failed to score33%
0-0-1Home record2-0-4
0-0-0Away record1-2-3
L1StreakD1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Varea · FC Andorra

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots10.5
—Shots on target5.2
—Corners4.0
—Cards4.50
—Fouls17.3
—Possession %57
—xG1.67
—sample6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots13.8
—Shots on target4.0
—Corners6.2
—Cards2.00
—Fouls9.7
—Possession %43
—xG1.25
—sample6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
VareaMetricFC Andorra
1.00Goals scored1.00
0.40 (better)Goals conceded1.40
Expected goals (xG)1.49
Big chances
Shots on target4.00
Total shots9.00
Touches in opp. box
Corners4.60
Possession %52.8
Passes420
Tackles
Fouls18.60
Offsides3.25
Throw-ins
Yellow cards4.00
Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Varea wins
0
Draws
0
FC Andorra wins
1
Goals / game
3.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
0%