Valladolid v Eldense

12th2–315th

16:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Valladolid		Eldense
16	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	5
13	Corners	2
10	Fouls	13
3	Yellow cards	4
1	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
483	Passes	385
57%	Possession %	43%
1.52	xG	2.77

Over 1.5: 71%
Over 2.5: 45%
Over 3.5: 23%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: Eldense 41%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.11 – 1.34

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Valladolid -0.75

2.10Bet365 · fair 1.93 · qualifies at 1.99+ · 1.96u

Why this price?

Back Valladolid -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.10 with Bet365 — Valladolid must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 23% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 71%; we judge it at 52%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.93. The offered 2.10 implies only 48%, so the price is 8.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.96 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Valladolid 1.11, Eldense 1.34.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Valladolid	30.2%	3.31	1.97 Dafabet	50.8%	-20.5
Match result	Draw	28.6%	3.50	3.45 Betano	29.0%	-0.4
Match result	Eldense	41.2%	2.43	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+18.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	71.1%	1.41	1.35 Betano	74.1%	-2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.6%	2.02	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-2.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	28.9%	3.47	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-0.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	44.5%	2.25	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-5.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	55.5%	1.80	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	+1.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	23.3%	4.29	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-5.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	76.7%	1.30	1.31 Betano	76.3%	+0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.4%	1.98	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-1.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Eldense favoured against Valladolid

Our model makes Valladolid 30% to win this Segunda División fixture, with the draw at 29% and Eldense at 41%. The goal projection is 1.11 for Valladolid against 1.34 for Eldense — a slight edge to Eldense on expected output. A combined 2.46 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 11%; 0-0 9%; 1-0 9%; 1-2 9%

This season

Season records for Valladolid and Eldense
Valladolid		Eldense
13	Played	13
5-3-5	W-D-L	4-2-7
1.38	Pts / game	1.08
1.69	Goals for / game	1.00
1.54	Goals against / game	1.46
62%	Over 2.5	46%
62%	BTTS	38%
15%	Clean sheets	15%
23%	Failed to score	54%
4-0-2	Home record	2-2-2
1-3-3	Away record	2-0-5
W2	Streak	L3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Valladolid · Eldense

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.9	Shots	12.1
7.0	Shots on target	4.3
5.9	Corners	4.1
3.50	Cards	3.43
14.9	Fouls	15.3
48	Possession %	50
1.97	xG	1.52
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.4	Shots	12.6
5.1	Shots on target	4.1
4.3	Corners	6.3
3.63	Cards	3.00
14.0	Fouls	13.4
52	Possession %	50
1.77	xG	1.37
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Valladolid	Metric	Eldense
1.40	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.00 (better)
0.92	Expected goals (xG)	1.92 (better)
	Big chances
4.80	Shots on target	5.00 (better)
12.00	Total shots	14.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	6.00 (better)
45.8	Possession %	51.6 (better)
357	Passes	456 (better)
	Tackles
16.40	Fouls	13.00 (better)
1.80	Offsides	1.80
	Throw-ins
3.20	Yellow cards	2.40 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Valladolid wins: 0
Draws: 0
Eldense wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Valladolid v Eldense2–32026-10-18

Segunda División table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Almeria	13	9	2	2	+14	29	Almeria won 3 of the last 5
2	Castellón	12	8	3	1	+18	27	Castellón won 2 of the last 5
3	Burgos	13	7	3	3	+5	24	Burgos won 3 of the last 5
4	Eibar	12	7	2	3	+7	23	Eibar won 1 of the last 5
5	Granada CF	12	7	2	3	+6	23	Granada CF won 5 of the last 5
6	Mallorca	12	6	4	2	+8	22	Mallorca won 2 of the last 5
7	Sporting Gijon	13	7	1	5	-1	22	Sporting Gijon won 3 of the last 5
8	Girona	13	6	3	4	+10	21	Girona won 2 of the last 5
9	Oviedo	13	6	3	4	+3	21	Oviedo won 3 of the last 5
10	Las Palmas	13	6	2	5	-2	20	Las Palmas won 3 of the last 5
11	Cordoba	13	6	1	6	0	19	Cordoba won 3 of the last 5
12	Valladolid	13	5	3	5	+2	18	Valladolid won 3 of the last 5
13	Sabadell	13	4	6	3	+1	18	Sabadell won 1 of the last 5
14	Tenerife	12	3	6	3	-2	15	Tenerife won 0 of the last 5
15	Eldense	13	4	2	7	-6	14	Eldense won 2 of the last 5
16	Celta de Vigo II	13	3	4	6	-6	13	Celta de Vigo II won 1 of the last 5
17	Real Sociedad II	13	3	3	7	-7	12	Real Sociedad II won 1 of the last 5
18	Leganes	13	3	3	7	-12	12	Leganes won 0 of the last 5
19	FC Andorra	12	3	2	7	-5	11	FC Andorra won 1 of the last 5
20	Cadiz	13	2	4	7	-2	10	Cadiz won 1 of the last 5
21	Albacete	13	3	1	9	-11	10	Albacete won 3 of the last 5
22	AD Ceuta FC	13	1	2	10	-20	5	AD Ceuta FC won 0 of the last 5