Valerenga v Tromso

8th4–06th

18:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Valerenga		Tromso
18	Shots	3
9	Shots on target	0
3	Corners	2
12	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	2
2	Offsides	0
838	Passes	358
70%	Possession %	30%
2.36	xG	0.33

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 69%

Model pick: Tromso 41%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.71 – 1.84

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Valerenga -0.5

2.45Betano · fair 2.23 · qualifies at 2.30+ · 1.66u

Why this price?

Back Valerenga -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.45 with Betano — Valerenga must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 36% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 51%; we judge it at 45%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.23. The offered 2.45 implies only 41%, so the price is 9.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.66 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Valerenga 1.71, Tromso 1.84.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Valerenga	35.9%	2.78	2.50 Betano	40.0%	-4.1
Match result	Draw	23.0%	4.35	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-3.3
Match result	Tromso	41.1%	2.43	2.70 Dafabet	37.0%	+4.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.3%	1.15	1.17 Betano	85.5%	+1.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.7%	7.89	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.7%	1.46	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+3.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.3%	3.20	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-8.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.3%	2.11	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+3.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.7%	1.90	1.65 Betfair	60.6%	-7.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	69.3%	1.44	1.44 William Hill	69.4%	-0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	30.7%	3.26	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-4.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Valerenga v Tromso: too close to call

Our model makes Valerenga 36% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 23% and Tromso at 41%. The goal projection is 1.71 for Valerenga against 1.84 for Tromso — a slight edge to Tromso on expected output. A combined 3.55 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-3 5%

This season

Season records for Valerenga and Tromso
Valerenga		Tromso
26	Played	26
9-5-12	W-D-L	11-7-8
1.23	Pts / game	1.54
1.65	Goals for / game	1.65
1.81	Goals against / game	1.54
58%	Over 2.5	50%
54%	BTTS	46%
15%	Clean sheets	35%
31%	Failed to score	31%
6-2-5	Home record	7-4-2
3-3-7	Away record	4-3-6
L1	Streak	L3

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Valerenga · Tromso

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.3	Shots	13.2
5.8	Shots on target	4.3
5.7	Corners	3.7
1.83	Cards	2.00
10.8	Fouls	10.8
48	Possession %	51
1.79	xG	1.12
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.2	Shots	12.3
4.7	Shots on target	4.2
6.2	Corners	3.7
1.77	Cards	2.00
8.7	Fouls	10.8
52	Possession %	49
1.70	xG	1.40
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Valerenga	Metric	Tromso
2.00	Goals scored	2.00
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.86 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.78
	Big chances
6.25	Shots on target	7.00 (better)
18.75 (better)	Total shots	14.75
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	3.50
43.3	Possession %	52.3 (better)
419	Passes	559 (better)
	Tackles
10.50	Fouls	10.50
3.00	Offsides	0.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.75 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Valerenga wins: 2
Draws: 0
Tromso wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 0%

Valerenga v Tromso4–02026-11-01
Tromso v Valerenga4–02026-07-11
Valerenga v Tromso1–02025-10-04

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5