Valerenga v Brann

8th3–17th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Valerenga		Brann
22	Shots	22
10	Shots on target	7
4	Corners	8
9	Fouls	8
1	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
3	Offsides	2
312	Passes	651
33%	Possession %	67%
2.76	xG	2.93

Over 1.5: 89%
Over 2.5: 72%
Over 3.5: 51%
Both score: 72%

Model pick: Brann 43%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.76 – 1.98

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	28.2%	3.55	3.25 Betfair	30.8%	-2.6
Match result	Valerenga	34.4%	2.91	2.49 Dafabet	40.2%	-5.8
Match result	Draw	22.4%	4.47	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	-2.6
Match result	Brann	43.2%	2.31	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	+6.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	89.2%	1.12	1.12 Betano	89.3%	-0.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	10.8%	9.27	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	-3.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	72.1%	1.39	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	-1.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	27.9%	3.58	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	-4.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	51.4%	1.95	1.95 Betano	51.3%	+0.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	48.6%	2.06	1.83 Bet365	54.6%	-6.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	71.8%	1.39	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+0.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Brann favoured against Valerenga

Our model makes Valerenga 34% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 22% and Brann at 43%. The goal projection is 1.76 for Valerenga against 1.98 for Brann — a slight edge to Brann on expected output. A combined 3.74 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 1-3 5%

This season

Season records for Valerenga and Brann
Valerenga		Brann
26	Played	26
9-5-12	W-D-L	10-3-13
1.23	Pts / game	1.27
1.65	Goals for / game	1.81
1.81	Goals against / game	1.69
58%	Over 2.5	81%
54%	BTTS	77%
15%	Clean sheets	12%
31%	Failed to score	15%
6-2-5	Home record	7-0-6
3-3-7	Away record	3-3-7
L1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Valerenga · Brann

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.3	Shots	15.7
5.8	Shots on target	5.2
5.7	Corners	7.5
1.83	Cards	2.53
10.8	Fouls	11.0
48	Possession %	57
1.79	xG	1.91
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.2	Shots	16.8
4.7	Shots on target	6.5
6.2	Corners	4.5
1.77	Cards	1.70
8.7	Fouls	12.0
52	Possession %	43
1.70	xG	2.45
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Valerenga	Metric	Brann
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
2.00	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
1.56	Expected goals (xG)	1.88 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.00
16.50 (better)	Total shots	16.00
	Touches in opp. box
7.00	Corners	7.67 (better)
51.5	Possession %	60.0 (better)
498	Passes	573 (better)
	Tackles
11.75 (better)	Fouls	12.00
2.25	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Valerenga wins: 2
Draws: 0
Brann wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.67
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Valerenga v Brann3–12026-10-18
Brann v Valerenga2–32026-07-26
Brann v Valerenga3–22025-09-13

Eliteserien table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Viking	26	20	2	4	+42	62	Viking won 4 of the last 5
2	Bodo/Glimt	26	20	2	4	+40	62	Bodo/Glimt won 4 of the last 5
3	Rosenborg	26	14	4	8	+21	46	Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5
4	Lillestrom	26	14	3	9	+4	45	Lillestrom won 4 of the last 5
5	Molde	26	13	5	8	+20	44	Molde won 2 of the last 5
6	Tromso	26	11	7	8	+3	40	Tromso won 0 of the last 5
7	Brann	26	10	3	13	+3	33	Brann won 1 of the last 5
8	Valerenga	26	9	5	12	-4	32	Valerenga won 3 of the last 5
9	Sarpsborg 08 FF	26	8	7	11	-10	31	Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5
10	KFUM Oslo	26	8	7	11	-13	31	KFUM Oslo won 1 of the last 5
11	Ham-Kam	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Ham-Kam won 2 of the last 5
12	Fredrikstad	26	8	6	12	-15	30	Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5
13	Sandefjord	26	7	7	12	-8	28	Sandefjord won 1 of the last 5
14	Kristiansund BK	26	7	5	14	-21	26	Kristiansund BK won 2 of the last 5
15	Aalesund	26	5	9	12	-15	24	Aalesund won 1 of the last 5
16	Start	26	5	4	17	-32	19	Start won 1 of the last 5