V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5DLLWL16th1–2Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5WWWDL14th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
V-varen Nagasaki
Tokyo Verdy
19
Shots
15
4
Shots on target
3
5
Corners
4
11
Fouls
15
2
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
427
Passes
453
49%
Possession %
51%
1.88
xG
1.09
46%
28%
26%
1 · V-varen NagasakiXTokyo Verdy · 2
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
24%
Both score
50%
Model pick
V-varen Nagasaki 46%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.03
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
V-varen Nagasaki
46.4%
2.15
2.55 Dafabet
39.2%
+7.2
Match result
Draw
27.6%
3.63
3.30 BetVictor
30.3%
-2.7
Match result
Tokyo Verdy
26.0%
3.85
3.00 BetVictor
33.3%
-7.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
71.6%
1.40
1.38 BetVictor
72.5%
-0.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
28.4%
3.52
3.10 Betfair
32.3%
-3.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
45.3%
2.21
2.15 Bet365
46.5%
-1.3
Total goals
Under 2.5
54.7%
1.83
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-4.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
23.9%
4.18
4.20 Betfair
23.8%
+0.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
76.1%
1.31
1.26 Betano
79.4%
-3.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
49.9%
2.00
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
-2.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
50.1%
2.00
1.91 William Hill
52.4%
-2.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
V-varen Nagasaki favoured against Tokyo Verdy
Our model makes V-varen Nagasaki 46% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Tokyo Verdy at 26%. The goal projection is 1.46 for V-varen Nagasaki against 1.03 for Tokyo Verdy — a clear edge to V-varen Nagasaki on expected output. A combined 2.49 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 45% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 12%
2-1 9%
0-0 9%
2-0 9%
This season
Season records for V-varen Nagasaki and Tokyo Verdy
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
V-varen Nagasaki
Metric
Tokyo Verdy
1.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.80
1.28 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
0.86
—
Big chances *
—
3.67 (better)
Shots on target
3.00
13.33 (better)
Total shots
8.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.33 (better)
Corners
3.00
45.3 (better)
Possession %
36.0
423 (better)
Passes
301
—
Tackles
—
13.33 (better)
Fouls
13.50
1.50 (better)
Offsides
3.75
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
1.75 (better)
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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V-varen Nagasaki v 
Tokyo Verdy