V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima

16th4–03rd

10:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
V-varen Nagasaki		Sanfrecce Hiroshima
12	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	2
0	Corners	10
14	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	1
2	Offsides	1
257	Passes	719
26%	Possession %	74%
2.12	xG	1.47

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 59%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 0.96 – 1.91

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Sanfrecce Hiroshima +0.25

1.35Bet365 · fair 1.26 · qualifies at 1.30+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Sanfrecce Hiroshima +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.35 with Bet365 — Sanfrecce Hiroshima starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 80% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 79%; we judge it at 79%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.26. The offered 1.35 implies only 74%, so the price is 7.3% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: V-varen Nagasaki 0.96, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.91.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	V-varen Nagasaki	18.0%	5.54	7.50 BetVictor	13.3%	+4.7
Match result	Draw	23.0%	4.35	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+3.0
Match result	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	59.0%	1.70	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-7.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.6%	1.27	1.22 Betano	82.0%	-3.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.4%	4.68	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+1.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.8%	1.83	1.67 Betano	59.9%	-5.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.2%	2.21	2.35 Bet365	42.6%	+2.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.4%	3.08	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-5.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.6%	1.48	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.2%	1.88	1.85 Betfair	54.1%	-0.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.8%	2.14	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+0.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima favoured against V-varen Nagasaki

Our model makes V-varen Nagasaki 18% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 59%. The goal projection is 0.96 for V-varen Nagasaki against 1.91 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima — a commanding edge to Sanfrecce Hiroshima on expected output. A combined 2.87 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 0-2 10%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-3 7%

This season

Season records for V-varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima
V-varen Nagasaki		Sanfrecce Hiroshima
14	Played	14
3-4-7	W-D-L	9-3-2
0.93	Pts / game	2.14
1.21	Goals for / game	2.29
1.57	Goals against / game	0.71
50%	Over 2.5	64%
57%	BTTS	29%
14%	Clean sheets	64%
29%	Failed to score	21%
3-2-2	Home record	5-1-0
0-2-5	Away record	4-2-2
D1	Streak	D1

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. V-varen Nagasaki · Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.0	Shots	17.5
2.8	Shots on target	5.8
3.5	Corners	7.0
1.83	Cards	0.83
12.2	Fouls	10.3
44	Possession %	64
1.17	xG	1.58
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.5	Shots	8.5
3.3	Shots on target	2.5
6.0	Corners	2.2
0.67	Cards	1.67
13.2	Fouls	12.0
56	Possession %	36
1.34	xG	0.87
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
V-varen Nagasaki	Metric	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.00	Goals scored	3.00 (better)
1.20	Goals conceded	0.20 (better)
1.21	Expected goals (xG)	2.84 (better)
	Big chances
4.33	Shots on target	8.67 (better)
14.33	Total shots	21.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.67	Corners	9.67 (better)
45.0	Possession %	66.7 (better)
406	Passes	609 (better)
	Tackles
11.33	Fouls	8.67 (better)
3.50	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.33	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

V-varen Nagasaki wins: 1
Draws: 0
Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima4–02026-10-21
Sanfrecce Hiroshima v V-varen Nagasaki2–02026-04-18
V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima1–32026-02-06

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5