Uta Arad v 
Petrolul Ploiesti
Match statistics
| Uta Arad | Petrolul Ploiesti | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 415 | Passes | 408 |
| 52% | Possession % | 48% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 72%
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- Over 3.5
- 24%
- Both score
- 50%
- Model pick
- Uta Arad 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.49 – 1.02
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Uta Arad -0.5
Why this price?
Back Uta Arad -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.75 with Bet365 — Uta Arad must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 70%; we judge it at 61%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.64. The offered 1.75 implies only 57%, so the price is 6.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Uta Arad 1.49, Petrolul Ploiesti 1.02.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Uta Arad | 47.2% | 2.12 | 1.97 Dafabet | 50.8% | -3.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.3% | 3.66 | 3.80 Betano | 26.3% | +1.0 |
| Match result | Petrolul Ploiesti | 25.5% | 3.92 | 4.25 Betano | 23.5% | +2.0 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | 1.28 Betano | 78.1% | -6.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | 4.00 Bet365 | 25.0% | +2.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 45.9% | 2.18 | 1.85 Betano | 54.1% | -8.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | 2.07 Betano | 48.3% | +5.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 24.4% | 4.09 | 3.10 Betano | 32.3% | -7.8 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.40 Betano | 71.4% | +4.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | -6.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 49.8% | 2.01 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | +4.3 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Uta Arad favoured against Petrolul Ploiesti
Our model makes Uta Arad 47% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 27% and Petrolul Ploiesti at 25%. The goal projection is 1.49 for Uta Arad against 1.02 for Petrolul Ploiesti — a clear edge to Uta Arad on expected output. A combined 2.51 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 2-0 9%
- 0-0 9%
This season
| Uta Arad | Petrolul Ploiesti | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 5-3-7 | W-D-L | 8-3-4 |
| 1.20 | Pts / game | 1.80 |
| 1.07 | Goals for / game | 1.33 |
| 1.33 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 40% |
| 33% | BTTS | 47% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 47% | Failed to score | 20% |
| 3-3-1 | Home record | 4-2-1 |
| 2-0-6 | Away record | 4-1-3 |
| L2 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Uta Arad · Petrolul Ploiesti
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 18.4 | Shots | 16.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.53 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 11.8 |
| 47 | Possession % | 55 |
| 1.23 | xG | 1.44 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 14.0 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 3.2 |
| 2.60 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 12.8 |
| 53 | Possession % | 45 |
| 2.24 | xG | 1.08 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Uta Arad | Metric | Petrolul Ploiesti |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.20 |
| 1.21 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.25 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.25 (better) | Shots on target | 4.67 |
| 20.00 (better) | Total shots | 13.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 8.50 (better) | Corners | 4.00 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 49.7 (better) |
| 371 | Passes | 404 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.25 (better) | Fouls | 13.33 |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 1.33 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.25 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.33 |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Uta Arad wins
- 2
- Draws
- 1
- Petrolul Ploiesti wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.75
- Over 2.5
- 25%
- Both score
- 50%
- Uta Arad v Petrolul Ploiesti0–12026-11-06
- Petrolul Ploiesti v Uta Arad1–12026-05-03
- Uta Arad v Petrolul Ploiesti1–02025-12-08
- Petrolul Ploiesti v Uta Arad1–22025-08-01
Romanian Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +24 | 33 | Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +21 | 33 | Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Rapid | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | +10 | 31 | Rapid won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 27 | Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +6 | 26 | Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 24 | Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +1 | 22 | Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | FCSB | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | FCSB won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -1 | 19 | CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -9 | 18 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FC Botosani | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -1 | 15 | FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 15 | Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -6 | 13 | Oţelul won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 8 | FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | -19 | 6 | Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5 |