Uta Arad v 
CFR 1907 Cluj
Match statistics
| Uta Arad | CFR 1907 Cluj | |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 403 | Passes | 369 |
| 52% | Possession % | 48% |
| 2.32 | xG | 1.10 |
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- Over 3.5
- 32%
- Both score
- 57%
- Model pick
- Uta Arad 44%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.58 – 1.26
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Uta Arad -0.25
Why this price?
Back Uta Arad -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.07 with Betano — Uta Arad must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 51% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 55%; we judge it at 53%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.87. The offered 2.07 implies only 48%, so the price is 10.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Uta Arad 1.58, CFR 1907 Cluj 1.26.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Uta Arad | 44.2% | 2.26 | 2.40 Betfair | 41.7% | +2.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.9% | 3.86 | 3.50 Betfair | 28.6% | -2.7 |
| Match result | CFR 1907 Cluj | 29.9% | 3.34 | 3.20 Betfair | 31.3% | -1.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | 1.32 Betano | 75.8% | +2.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 22.0% | 4.55 | 3.75 Bet365 | 26.7% | -4.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.86 | 1.98 Betano | 50.5% | +3.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 46.1% | 2.17 | 1.95 Bet365 | 51.3% | -5.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 31.6% | 3.17 | 3.35 Betano | 29.9% | +1.7 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | 1.33 Bet365 | 75.2% | -6.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | +0.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 42.6% | 2.35 | 2.10 BetVictor | 47.6% | -5.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Uta Arad favoured against CFR 1907 Cluj
Our model makes Uta Arad 44% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 26% and CFR 1907 Cluj at 30%. The goal projection is 1.58 for Uta Arad against 1.26 for CFR 1907 Cluj — a clear edge to Uta Arad on expected output. A combined 2.83 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-0 7%
This season
| Uta Arad | CFR 1907 Cluj | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 5-3-7 | W-D-L | 5-4-6 |
| 1.20 | Pts / game | 1.27 |
| 1.07 | Goals for / game | 1.33 |
| 1.33 | Goals against / game | 1.40 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 33% | BTTS | 53% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 47% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 3-3-1 | Home record | 3-3-1 |
| 2-0-6 | Away record | 2-1-5 |
| L2 | Streak | D3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Uta Arad · CFR 1907 Cluj
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 18.4 | Shots | 9.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 3.0 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 2.53 | Cards | 2.40 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 11.8 |
| 47 | Possession % | 35 |
| 1.23 | xG | 1.28 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 14.0 | Shots | 21.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 6.7 |
| 2.60 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 9.5 |
| 53 | Possession % | 65 |
| 2.24 | xG | 1.77 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Uta Arad | Metric | CFR 1907 Cluj |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 2.07 | Expected goals (xG) | |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.00 (better) | Shots on target | 5.50 |
| 17.25 (better) | Total shots | 14.75 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.50 (better) | Corners | 5.25 |
| 48.5 (better) | Possession % | 43.5 |
| 398 (better) | Passes | 394 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.75 | Fouls | 10.00 (better) |
| 1.50 | Offsides | 0.25 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.25 | Yellow cards | 1.25 |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Uta Arad wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- CFR 1907 Cluj wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.33
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 33%
- Uta Arad v CFR 1907 Cluj1–02026-10-18
- Uta Arad v CFR 1907 Cluj0–12026-02-04
- CFR 1907 Cluj v Uta Arad1–12025-09-21
Romanian Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universitatea Craiova | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +24 | 33 | Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | +21 | 33 | Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Rapid | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | +10 | 31 | Rapid won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 27 | Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +6 | 26 | Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +2 | 24 | Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +1 | 22 | Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | FCSB | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | FCSB won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -1 | 19 | CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -9 | 18 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | FC Botosani | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -1 | 15 | FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 15 | Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | -6 | 13 | Oţelul won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 8 | FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | -19 | 6 | Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5 |