Urawa v V-varen Nagasaki

9th1–016th

06:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Urawa		V-varen Nagasaki
19	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	1
7	Corners	4
9	Fouls	8
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
519	Passes	344
61%	Possession %	39%
1.31	xG	0.68

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Urawa 47%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.66 – 1.22

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.7%	1.73	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+2.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.3%	2.37	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-7.7
Match result	Urawa	47.0%	2.13	1.62 William Hill	61.7%	-14.7
Match result	Draw	25.3%	3.95	4.10 BetVictor	24.4%	+1.0
Match result	V-varen Nagasaki	27.6%	3.62	5.50 Bet365	18.2%	+9.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.8%	1.27	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-1.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.2%	4.73	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-3.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.0%	1.82	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-0.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.0%	2.22	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-3.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.7%	3.06	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.3%	1.49	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-4.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Urawa favoured against V-varen Nagasaki

Our model makes Urawa 47% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 25% and V-varen Nagasaki at 28%. The goal projection is 1.66 for Urawa against 1.22 for V-varen Nagasaki — a clear edge to Urawa on expected output. A combined 2.88 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Urawa and V-varen Nagasaki
Urawa		V-varen Nagasaki
14	Played	14
7-1-6	W-D-L	3-4-7
1.57	Pts / game	0.93
1.64	Goals for / game	1.21
2.07	Goals against / game	1.57
79%	Over 2.5	50%
64%	BTTS	57%
21%	Clean sheets	14%
14%	Failed to score	29%
4-0-2	Home record	3-2-2
3-1-4	Away record	0-2-5
D1	Streak	D1

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Urawa · V-varen Nagasaki

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.2	Shots	12.0
4.5	Shots on target	2.8
6.7	Corners	3.5
0.67	Cards	1.83
8.3	Fouls	12.2
59	Possession %	44
1.53	xG	1.17
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.0	Shots	14.5
3.8	Shots on target	3.3
2.8	Corners	6.0
1.83	Cards	0.67
10.0	Fouls	13.2
41	Possession %	56
1.22	xG	1.34
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Urawa	Metric	V-varen Nagasaki
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
1.31 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.96
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	2.67
19.50 (better)	Total shots	14.33
	Touches in opp. box
8.00 (better)	Corners	5.67
66.0 (better)	Possession %	51.3
568 (better)	Passes	461
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	12.00
1.50 (better)	Offsides	3.50
	Throw-ins
0.50 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Urawa wins: 1
Draws: 0
V-varen Nagasaki wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Urawa v V-varen Nagasaki1–02026-10-25

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5