Urawa v JEF United Chiba

9th3–217th

10:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Urawa		JEF United Chiba
10	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	2
6	Corners	3
7	Fouls	14
0	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
334	Passes	322
51%	Possession %	49%
1.31	xG	1.58

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Urawa 54%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.95 – 1.23

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Urawa -0.5

1.70Bet365 · fair 1.54 · qualifies at 1.59+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Urawa -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.70 with Bet365 — Urawa must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 72%; we judge it at 65%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.54. The offered 1.70 implies only 59%, so the price is 10.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Urawa 1.95, JEF United Chiba 1.23.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Draw	23.0%	4.35	4.00 Betfair	25.0%	-2.0
Match result	JEF United Chiba	23.3%	4.28	5.50 BetVictor	18.2%	+5.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	83.0%	1.20	1.26 Betano	79.4%	+3.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.0%	5.89	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	-7.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.4%	1.63	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	+7.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	38.6%	2.59	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	-10.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.2%	2.55	3.20 BetVictor	31.3%	+7.9
Match result	Urawa	53.7%	1.86	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-5.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	60.8%	1.64	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-10.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.1%	1.64	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+7.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.9%	2.57	1.95 William Hill	51.3%	-12.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Urawa favoured against JEF United Chiba

Our model makes Urawa 54% to win this J1 League fixture, with the draw at 23% and JEF United Chiba at 23%. The goal projection is 1.95 for Urawa against 1.23 for JEF United Chiba — a substantial edge to Urawa on expected output. A combined 3.17 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 8%; 1-0 8%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Urawa and JEF United Chiba
Urawa		JEF United Chiba
14	Played	14
7-1-6	W-D-L	3-4-7
1.57	Pts / game	0.93
1.64	Goals for / game	1.14
2.07	Goals against / game	1.71
79%	Over 2.5	57%
64%	BTTS	50%
21%	Clean sheets	29%
14%	Failed to score	29%
4-0-2	Home record	3-2-2
3-1-4	Away record	0-2-5
D1	Streak	W2

2027/28 league matches only, computed from results on record. Urawa · JEF United Chiba

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.2	Shots	14.0
4.5	Shots on target	3.5
6.7	Corners	4.3
0.67	Cards	2.67
8.3	Fouls	14.0
59	Possession %	46
1.53	xG	1.67
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.0	Shots	13.0
3.8	Shots on target	2.7
2.8	Corners	4.3
1.83	Cards	1.50
10.0	Fouls	10.3
41	Possession %	54
1.22	xG	0.94
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Urawa	Metric	JEF United Chiba
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
2.00	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
0.84	Expected goals (xG)	2.15 (better)
	Big chances
2.67	Shots on target	4.33 (better)
11.67 (better)	Total shots	10.67
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	4.33
51.0 (better)	Possession %	41.0
401 (better)	Passes	349
	Tackles
10.33 (better)	Fouls	14.67
2.33 (better)	Offsides	3.00
	Throw-ins
0.33 (better)	Yellow cards	2.00
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Urawa wins: 3
Draws: 0
JEF United Chiba wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

J1 League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Tokyo	14	10	3	1	+25	33	FC Tokyo won 4 of the last 5
2	Kashiwa Reysol	14	10	1	3	+11	31	Kashiwa Reysol won 3 of the last 5
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	14	9	3	2	+22	30	Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3 of the last 5
4	Machida Zelvia	14	8	5	1	+20	29	Machida Zelvia won 2 of the last 5
5	Vissel Kobe	14	8	3	3	+9	27	Vissel Kobe won 2 of the last 5
6	Kashima	14	7	2	5	+5	23	Kashima won 2 of the last 5
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	14	5	7	2	+6	22	Yokohama F. Marinos won 1 of the last 5
8	Kawasaki Frontale	14	6	4	4	+4	22	Kawasaki Frontale won 3 of the last 5
9	Urawa	14	7	1	6	-6	22	Urawa won 3 of the last 5
10	Fagiano Okayama	14	5	2	7	-6	17	Fagiano Okayama won 1 of the last 5
11	Cerezo Osaka	14	4	5	5	-9	17	Cerezo Osaka won 1 of the last 5
12	Kyoto Sanga	14	4	4	6	-4	16	Kyoto Sanga won 2 of the last 5
13	Nagoya Grampus	14	4	2	8	-8	14	Nagoya Grampus won 1 of the last 5
14	Tokyo Verdy	14	3	5	6	-10	14	Tokyo Verdy won 3 of the last 5
15	Shimizu S-pulse	14	4	2	8	-13	14	Shimizu S-pulse won 0 of the last 5
16	V-varen Nagasaki	14	3	4	7	-5	13	V-varen Nagasaki won 1 of the last 5
17	JEF United Chiba	14	3	4	7	-8	13	JEF United Chiba won 2 of the last 5
18	Gamba Osaka	14	2	6	6	-8	12	Gamba Osaka won 1 of the last 5
19	Mito Hollyhock	14	2	3	9	-14	9	Mito Hollyhock won 0 of the last 5
20	Avispa Fukuoka	14	2	2	10	-11	8	Avispa Fukuoka won 0 of the last 5