Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5DWWWW1st2–1FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5DLLLW12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Universitatea Craiova
FC Botosani
9
Shots
6
2
Shots on target
2
2
Corners
5
17
Fouls
6
2
Yellow cards
0
—
Red cards
—
2
Offsides
3
532
Passes
454
54%
Possession %
46%
—
xG
—
69%
20%
1 · Universitatea CraiovaXFC Botosani · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
47%
Model pick
Universitatea Craiova 69%
Likely score
2-0 13%
Expected goals
2.15 – 0.75
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Universitatea Craiova
69.3%
1.44
1.44 Dafabet
69.4%
-0.2
Match result
Draw
19.5%
5.12
6.00 Betfair
16.7%
+2.9
Match result
FC Botosani
11.2%
8.91
10.50 Betfair
9.5%
+1.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.0%
1.27
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-5.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.0%
4.75
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
+2.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
55.4%
1.81
1.60 Bet365
62.5%
-7.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
44.6%
2.24
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+5.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
33.0%
3.03
2.50 Bet365
40.0%
-7.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.0%
1.49
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+5.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
47.0%
2.13
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
-5.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
53.0%
1.89
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
+3.0
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Universitatea Craiova favoured against FC Botosani
Our model makes Universitatea Craiova 69% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 20% and FC Botosani at 11%. The goal projection is 2.15 for Universitatea Craiova against 0.75 for FC Botosani — a commanding edge to Universitatea Craiova on expected output. A combined 2.90 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Universitatea Craiova is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 31% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-0 13%
1-0 11%
2-1 10%
1-1 9%
3-0 9%
This season
Season records for Universitatea Craiova and FC Botosani
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Universitatea Craiova
Metric
FC Botosani
2.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.00
0.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.80
1.68 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.54
—
Big chances *
—
6.50 (better)
Shots on target
4.40
17.00 (better)
Total shots
10.80
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.50 (better)
Corners
3.40
47.8
Possession %
52.8 (better)
436 (better)
Passes
435
—
Tackles
—
10.50 (better)
Fouls
10.80
0.75 (better)
Offsides
1.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.40
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.80
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Universitatea Craiova v 
FC Botosani