Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5DWWWW1st2–0Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5DWWLW6th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Universitatea Craiova
Farul Constanta
16
Shots
8
7
Shots on target
2
3
Corners
2
9
Fouls
9
2
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
0
525
Passes
577
48%
Possession %
52%
1.74
xG
0.61
68%
20%
1 · Universitatea CraiovaXFarul Constanta · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
34%
Both score
48%
Model pick
Universitatea Craiova 68%
Likely score
2-0 12%
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.78
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
51.6%
1.94
1.87 BetVictor
53.5%
-1.9
Match result
Universitatea Craiova
68.2%
1.47
1.47 Betano
68.0%
+0.2
Match result
Draw
19.8%
5.04
4.80 Betano
20.8%
-1.0
Match result
Farul Constanta
12.0%
8.34
7.50 BetVictor
13.3%
-1.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.4%
1.26
1.24 Betano
80.6%
-1.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.6%
4.86
4.33 Bet365
23.1%
-2.5
Total goals
Over 2.5
56.0%
1.78
1.72 Betano
58.1%
-2.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
44.0%
2.27
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
-1.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
33.6%
2.97
2.80 Betano
35.7%
-2.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
66.4%
1.51
1.47 Betano
68.0%
-1.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
48.4%
2.06
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
-3.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Universitatea Craiova favoured against Farul Constanta
Our model makes Universitatea Craiova 68% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 20% and Farul Constanta at 12%. The goal projection is 2.14 for Universitatea Craiova against 0.78 for Farul Constanta — a commanding edge to Universitatea Craiova on expected output. A combined 2.93 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Universitatea Craiova is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 32% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-0 12%
1-0 11%
2-1 10%
1-1 9%
3-0 9%
This season
Season records for Universitatea Craiova and Farul Constanta
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Universitatea Craiova
Metric
Farul Constanta
3.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
0.20 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
2.09 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
2.02
—
Big chances *
—
8.00 (better)
Shots on target
6.25
18.00 (better)
Total shots
13.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.33 (better)
Corners
4.25
52.7
Possession %
54.0 (better)
477
Passes
498 (better)
—
Tackles
—
8.67
Fouls
8.00 (better)
1.00 (better)
Offsides
1.50
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.00 (better)
Yellow cards
0.75
—
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Universitatea Craiova v 
Farul Constanta