Universitatea Cluj v FCSB

5th1–08th

18:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Universitatea Cluj		FCSB
10	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	4
1	Corners	9
11	Fouls	19
3	Yellow cards	5
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	2
310	Passes	426
41%	Possession %	59%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 48%
Both score: 64%

Model pick: Universitatea Cluj 63%
Likely score: 2-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.36 – 1.20

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Universitatea Cluj	62.8%	1.59	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	+24.8
Match result	Draw	19.5%	5.12	3.60 Betano	27.8%	-8.2
Match result	FCSB	17.6%	5.67	2.65 Dafabet	37.7%	-20.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.4%	1.14	1.21 Betano	82.6%	+4.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.6%	7.96	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	-9.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	69.0%	1.45	1.70 Betano	58.8%	+10.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.0%	3.23	2.32 Betano	43.1%	-12.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.6%	2.10	2.67 Betano	37.5%	+10.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.4%	1.91	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-12.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	63.6%	1.57	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-0.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	36.4%	2.75	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-2.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Universitatea Cluj favoured against FCSB

Our model makes Universitatea Cluj 63% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 20% and FCSB at 18%. The goal projection is 2.36 for Universitatea Cluj against 1.20 for FCSB — a commanding edge to Universitatea Cluj on expected output. A combined 3.56 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Universitatea Cluj is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 37% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 10%; 1-1 8%; 2-0 8%; 3-1 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Universitatea Cluj and FCSB
Universitatea Cluj		FCSB
15	Played	15
8-2-5	W-D-L	6-3-6
1.73	Pts / game	1.40
1.73	Goals for / game	1.33
1.33	Goals against / game	1.40
73%	Over 2.5	53%
53%	BTTS	47%
33%	Clean sheets	27%
20%	Failed to score	33%
5-1-2	Home record	4-2-2
3-1-3	Away record	2-1-4
D1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Universitatea Cluj · FCSB

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.3	Shots	19.4
5.0	Shots on target	7.0
5.2	Corners	5.8
3.33	Cards	2.00
10.3	Fouls	13.0
52	Possession %	61
1.47	xG	2.18
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.7	Shots	10.0
4.7	Shots on target	2.4
6.3	Corners	2.2
2.33	Cards	2.73
13.3	Fouls	12.4
48	Possession %	39
1.62	xG	0.78
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Universitatea Cluj	Metric	FCSB
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.73	Expected goals (xG)	2.50 (better)
	Big chances
5.40 (better)	Shots on target	5.00
14.60	Total shots	17.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.80 (better)	Corners	5.00
53.0	Possession %	54.4 (better)
411	Passes	439 (better)
	Tackles
10.40 (better)	Fouls	11.80
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.80
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	2.20 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.20

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Universitatea Cluj wins: 2
Draws: 0
FCSB wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Romanian Liga I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Universitatea Craiova	15	10	3	2	+24	33	Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5
2	Dinamo Bucuresti	15	10	3	2	+21	33	Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5
3	Rapid	15	9	4	2	+10	31	Rapid won 3 of the last 5
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	15	8	3	4	+2	27	Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5
5	Universitatea Cluj	15	8	2	5	+6	26	Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5
6	Farul Constanta	15	6	6	3	+2	24	Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5
7	Corvinul Hunedoara	15	6	4	5	+1	22	Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5
8	FCSB	15	6	3	6	-1	21	FCSB won 3 of the last 5
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	15	5	4	6	-1	19	CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5
10	Uta Arad	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5
11	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	15	4	6	5	-9	18	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 1 of the last 5
12	FC Botosani	15	3	6	6	-1	15	FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5
13	Arges Pitesti	15	4	3	8	-7	15	Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5
14	Oţelul	15	2	7	6	-6	13	Oţelul won 0 of the last 5
15	FC Voluntari	15	2	2	11	-18	8	FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5
16	Csikszereda	15	1	3	11	-19	6	Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5