Universitatea Cluj v Arges Pitesti

5th2–213th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Universitatea Cluj		Arges Pitesti
14	Shots	19
6	Shots on target	9
7	Corners	7
13	Fouls	19
3	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
316	Passes	307
52%	Possession %	48%
1.65	xG	1.94

Over 1.5: 65%
Over 2.5: 37%
Over 3.5: 18%
Both score: 40%

Model pick: Universitatea Cluj 54%
Likely score: 1-0 16%
Expected goals: 1.46 – 0.72

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Universitatea Cluj	54.3%	1.84	1.80 Betfair	55.6%	-1.2
Match result	Draw	27.8%	3.59	3.90 Dafabet	25.6%	+2.2
Match result	Arges Pitesti	17.8%	5.62	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	-0.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	64.7%	1.54	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-9.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	35.3%	2.84	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	+7.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	37.3%	2.68	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-11.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	62.7%	1.59	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	+8.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	17.7%	5.63	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-8.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	82.3%	1.22	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	+7.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	40.1%	2.50	1.98 Betano	50.5%	-10.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	59.9%	1.67	1.85 William Hill	54.1%	+5.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Universitatea Cluj favoured against Arges Pitesti

Our model makes Universitatea Cluj 54% to win this Romanian Liga I fixture, with the draw at 28% and Arges Pitesti at 18%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Universitatea Cluj against 0.72 for Arges Pitesti — a substantial edge to Universitatea Cluj on expected output. A combined 2.18 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 40%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 16%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 16%; 1-1 12%; 2-0 12%; 0-0 12%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for Universitatea Cluj and Arges Pitesti
Universitatea Cluj		Arges Pitesti
15	Played	15
8-2-5	W-D-L	4-3-8
1.73	Pts / game	1.00
1.73	Goals for / game	0.67
1.33	Goals against / game	1.13
73%	Over 2.5	20%
53%	BTTS	33%
33%	Clean sheets	20%
20%	Failed to score	47%
5-1-2	Home record	3-2-3
3-1-3	Away record	1-1-5
D1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Universitatea Cluj · Arges Pitesti

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.3	Shots	14.8
5.0	Shots on target	4.2
5.2	Corners	6.8
3.33	Cards	3.20
10.3	Fouls	14.8
52	Possession %	47
1.47	xG	1.74
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.7	Shots	14.6
4.7	Shots on target	4.4
6.3	Corners	5.6
2.33	Cards	1.73
13.3	Fouls	12.2
48	Possession %	53
1.62	xG	1.42
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Universitatea Cluj	Metric	Arges Pitesti
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.20
1.65	Expected goals (xG)	2.01 (better)
	Big chances
4.50 (better)	Shots on target	1.67
13.00	Total shots	14.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	5.67 (better)
55.5 (better)	Possession %	44.3
474 (better)	Passes	356
	Tackles
10.00	Fouls	9.00 (better)
1.75 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.33
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Universitatea Cluj wins: 3
Draws: 1
Arges Pitesti wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.20
Over 2.5: 40%
Both score: 40%

Universitatea Cluj v Arges Pitesti2–22026-10-19
Universitatea Cluj v Arges Pitesti1–02026-05-02
Arges Pitesti v Universitatea Cluj0–12026-03-21
Universitatea Cluj v Arges Pitesti3–12026-02-03
Arges Pitesti v Universitatea Cluj1–02025-09-20

Romanian Liga I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Universitatea Craiova	15	10	3	2	+24	33	Universitatea Craiova won 4 of the last 5
2	Dinamo Bucuresti	15	10	3	2	+21	33	Dinamo Bucuresti won 3 of the last 5
3	Rapid	15	9	4	2	+10	31	Rapid won 3 of the last 5
4	Petrolul Ploiesti	15	8	3	4	+2	27	Petrolul Ploiesti won 2 of the last 5
5	Universitatea Cluj	15	8	2	5	+6	26	Universitatea Cluj won 2 of the last 5
6	Farul Constanta	15	6	6	3	+2	24	Farul Constanta won 3 of the last 5
7	Corvinul Hunedoara	15	6	4	5	+1	22	Corvinul Hunedoara won 3 of the last 5
8	FCSB	15	6	3	6	-1	21	FCSB won 3 of the last 5
9	CFR 1907 Cluj	15	5	4	6	-1	19	CFR 1907 Cluj won 1 of the last 5
10	Uta Arad	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Uta Arad won 2 of the last 5
11	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe	15	4	6	5	-9	18	Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe won 1 of the last 5
12	FC Botosani	15	3	6	6	-1	15	FC Botosani won 1 of the last 5
13	Arges Pitesti	15	4	3	8	-7	15	Arges Pitesti won 1 of the last 5
14	Oţelul	15	2	7	6	-6	13	Oţelul won 0 of the last 5
15	FC Voluntari	15	2	2	11	-18	8	FC Voluntari won 0 of the last 5
16	Csikszereda	15	1	3	11	-19	6	Csikszereda won 1 of the last 5