United of Manchester won 3 of the last 5LDWWW2–6Altrincham won 1 of the last 3DWD
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
United of Manchester
Altrincham
9
Shots
22
3
Shots on target
10
0
Corners
4
—
Fouls
—
2
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
27%
Possession %
73%
—
xG
—
57%
23%
20%
1 · United of ManchesterXAltrincham · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
54%
Model pick
United of Manchester 57%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.01
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
United of Manchester
57.1%
1.75
3.40 BetVictor
29.4%
+27.7
Match result
Draw
23.4%
4.28
4.00 Dafabet
25.0%
-1.6
Match result
Altrincham
19.5%
5.12
2.05 Betano
48.8%
-29.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.9%
1.27
1.19 Betano
84.0%
-5.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.1%
4.75
4.75 BetVictor
21.1%
+0.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
55.2%
1.81
1.70 Bet365
58.8%
-3.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
44.8%
2.23
2.38 Bet365
42.0%
+2.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.8%
3.04
2.63 BetVictor
38.0%
-5.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.2%
1.49
1.50 BetVictor
66.7%
+0.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
54.5%
1.84
1.60 Betano
62.5%
-8.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
45.5%
2.20
2.40 BetVictor
41.7%
+3.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
United of Manchester favoured against Altrincham
Our model makes United of Manchester 57% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 23% and Altrincham at 20%. The goal projection is 1.88 for United of Manchester against 1.01 for Altrincham — a substantial edge to United of Manchester on expected output. A combined 2.89 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 10%
1-0 10%
2-0 10%
3-1 6%
This season
Season records for United of Manchester and Altrincham
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
United of Manchester
Metric
Altrincham
1.20
Goals scored
1.60 (better)
0.80
Goals conceded
0.80
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
3.00
Shots on target
9.00 (better)
5.00
Total shots
21.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.00
Corners
11.00 (better)
34.0
Possession %
66.0 (better)
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
3.00
Yellow cards
2.00 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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United of Manchester v 
Altrincham