União de Leiria v 
Bragança
- Over 1.5
- 89%
- Over 2.5
- 72%
- Over 3.5
- 51%
- Both score
- 69%
- Model pick
- Bragança 54%
- Likely score
- 1-2 9%
- Expected goals
- 1.49 – 2.22
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | União de Leiria | 25.1% | 3.98 | 1.22 William Hill | 82.0% | -56.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 21.1% | 4.74 | 7.00 Bet365 | 14.3% | +6.8 |
| Match result | Bragança | 53.8% | 1.86 | 15.00 BetVictor | 6.7% | +47.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 88.8% | 1.13 | 1.17 Bet365 | 85.5% | +3.4 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 11.2% | 8.96 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | -8.8 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | 1.57 Bet365 | 63.7% | +7.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 28.4% | 3.52 | 2.35 Bet365 | 42.6% | -14.1 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | 2.38 Bet365 | 42.0% | +8.7 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 69.4% | 1.44 | 2.62 Bet365 | 38.2% | +31.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 30.6% | 3.27 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | -31.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bragança favoured against União de Leiria
Our model makes União de Leiria 25% to win this Taça de Portugal fixture, with the draw at 21% and Bragança at 54%. The goal projection is 1.49 for União de Leiria against 2.22 for Bragança — a substantial edge to Bragança on expected output. A combined 3.71 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-2 9%
- 1-1 9%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-3 7%
- 0-2 6%
This season
| União de Leiria | Bragança | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Played | 3 |
| 2-0-0 | W-D-L | 2-0-1 |
| 3.00 | Pts / game | 2.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals for / game | 3.67 |
| 0.50 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 100% |
| 50% | BTTS | 67% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 1-0-0 | Home record | 1-0-0 |
| 1-0-0 | Away record | 1-0-1 |
| W2 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. União de Leiria · Bragança
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Conceded
No full-match statistics on record yet this season.
Form comparison
| União de Leiria | Metric | Bragança |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | Goals scored | 2.80 (better) |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded | 0.20 (better) |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| 7.00 | Shots on target | |
| 17.00 | Total shots | |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 | Corners | |
| 59.0 | Possession % | |
| Passes | ||
| Tackles | ||
| Fouls | ||
| Offsides | ||
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.33 | Yellow cards | |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- União de Leiria wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Bragança wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- União de Leiria v Bragança2–12026-10-17