Ulsan Hyundai FC v 
Pohang Steelers
Match statistics
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | Pohang Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| — | Offsides | — |
| — | Passes | — |
| 67% | Possession % | 33% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 72%
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- Over 3.5
- 24%
- Both score
- 51%
- Model pick
- Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.43 – 1.07
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Ulsan Hyundai FC -0.5
Why this price?
Back Ulsan Hyundai FC -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.98 with Bet365 — Ulsan Hyundai FC must win by more than 0.5 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 64%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.79. The offered 1.98 implies only 51%, so the price is 10.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.43, Pohang Steelers 1.07.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 44.4% | 2.25 | 1.89 Dafabet | 52.9% | -8.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.8% | 3.60 | 3.75 Dafabet | 26.7% | +1.1 |
| Match result | Pohang Steelers | 27.8% | 3.59 | 4.10 Dafabet | 24.4% | +3.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | 1.25 Bet365 | 80.0% | -8.1 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 28.1% | 3.56 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | +3.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 45.6% | 2.19 | 1.75 Bet365 | 57.1% | -11.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | 2.08 Bet365 | 48.1% | +6.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 24.3% | 4.12 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -9.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | 1.42 Betano | 70.4% | +5.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | -9.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 49.3% | 2.03 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | +3.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Ulsan Hyundai FC favoured against Pohang Steelers
Our model makes Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 28% and Pohang Steelers at 28%. The goal projection is 1.43 for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.07 for Pohang Steelers — a clear edge to Ulsan Hyundai FC on expected output. A combined 2.50 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 0-0 9%
- 2-0 8%
This season
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | Pohang Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Played | 35 |
| 17-6-12 | W-D-L | 11-11-13 |
| 1.63 | Pts / game | 1.26 |
| 1.60 | Goals for / game | 0.94 |
| 1.40 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 66% | Over 2.5 | 37% |
| 71% | BTTS | 40% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 31% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 40% |
| 10-2-6 | Home record | 4-5-6 |
| 7-4-6 | Away record | 7-6-7 |
| W2 | Streak | D4 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ulsan Hyundai FC · Pohang Steelers
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.0 | Shots | 6.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.0 | Shots on target | 2.4 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.4 |
| 1.20 | Cards | 1.80 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| — | xG | — |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 8.4 | Shots | 12.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 3.6 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 0.80 |
| — | Fouls | — |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| — | xG | — |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Ulsan Hyundai FC | Metric | Pohang Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.20 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.68 | |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.40 (better) | Shots on target | 3.00 |
| 13.00 (better) | Total shots | 8.20 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.40 | Corners | 5.20 (better) |
| 51.4 (better) | Possession % | 41.0 |
| 363 | Passes | 369 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.60 (better) | Fouls | 12.60 |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 1.80 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.20 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Ulsan Hyundai FC wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Pohang Steelers wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.25
- Over 2.5
- 25%
- Both score
- 50%
- Ulsan Hyundai FC v Pohang Steelers2–22026-10-24
- Pohang Steelers v Ulsan Hyundai FC0–22026-08-08
- Ulsan Hyundai FC v Pohang Steelers0–12026-05-02
- Pohang Steelers v Ulsan Hyundai FC1–12025-09-13
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 35 | 20 | 7 | 8 | +30 | 67 | FC Seoul won 1 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 35 | 17 | 6 | 12 | +7 | 57 | Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | +14 | 53 | Daejeon Citizen won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 35 | 12 | 15 | 8 | +10 | 51 | Gangwon FC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Jeonbuk Motors | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | +9 | 49 | Jeonbuk Motors won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Incheon United | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | +7 | 49 | Incheon United won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Jeju United FC | 35 | 12 | 12 | 11 | +2 | 48 | Jeju United FC won 0 of the last 5 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 35 | 11 | 13 | 11 | -8 | 46 | FC Anyang won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | -9 | 44 | Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 35 | 6 | 20 | 9 | -7 | 38 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 35 | 7 | 12 | 16 | -16 | 33 | Bucheon FC 1995 won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 35 | 3 | 14 | 18 | -39 | 23 | Gwangju FC won 2 of the last 5 |