Predicted Edge

Ulsan Hyundai FC v Gangwon FC

Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3 of the last 52nd2–1Gangwon FC won 2 of the last 54th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Ulsan Hyundai FC Gangwon FC
9Shots10
6Shots on target6
0Corners2
—Fouls—
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
—Offsides—
—Passes—
44%Possession %56%
—xG—
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
20%
Both score
47%
Model pick
Gangwon FC 41%
Likely score
1-1 14%
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.27

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Gangwon FC

3.20Dafabet · fair 2.92 · qualifies at 3.00+ · 1.11u
Why this price?

Back Gangwon FC to win at 3.20 with Dafabet.

Our model puts the chance at 41% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 30%; we judge it at 34%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.92. The offered 3.20 implies only 31%, so the price is 9.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.11 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.05, Gangwon FC 1.27.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultUlsan Hyundai FC30.1%3.322.23 Dafabet44.8%-14.7
Match resultDraw29.3%3.413.50 Betfair28.6%+0.8
Match resultGangwon FC40.5%2.473.25 Bet36530.8%+9.8
Total goalsOver 1.568.0%1.471.29 Betano77.5%-9.5
Total goalsUnder 1.532.0%3.133.80 Betfair26.3%+5.6
Total goalsOver 2.540.9%2.441.95 Bet36551.3%-10.3
Total goalsUnder 2.559.1%1.692.00 Bet36550.0%+9.1
Total goalsOver 3.520.5%4.883.30 BetVictor30.3%-9.8
Total goalsUnder 3.579.5%1.261.36 Bet36573.5%+6.0
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes47.4%2.111.73 Bet36557.8%-10.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No52.6%1.902.20 Betfair45.5%+7.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gangwon FC favoured against Ulsan Hyundai FC

Our model makes Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 29% and Gangwon FC at 41%. The goal projection is 1.05 for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.27 for Gangwon FC — a slight edge to Gangwon FC on expected output. A combined 2.32 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 14%
0-1 12%
0-0 10%
1-0 10%
1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC Gangwon FC
35Played35
17-6-12W-D-L12-15-8
1.63Pts / game1.46
1.60Goals for / game1.26
1.40Goals against / game0.97
66%Over 2.540%
71%BTTS49%
17%Clean sheets40%
17%Failed to score26%
10-2-6Home record6-9-3
7-4-6Away record6-6-5
W2StreakW1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ulsan Hyundai FC · Gangwon FC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.0Shots12.0
7.0Shots on target6.2
4.0Corners4.8
1.20Cards1.50
—Fouls—
54Possession %60
—xG—
5 matchessample6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.4Shots7.0
5.8Shots on target3.7
3.6Corners2.3
1.00Cards1.67
—Fouls—
46Possession %41
—xG—
5 matchessample6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ulsan Hyundai FCMetricGangwon FC
2.00 (better)Goals scored1.00
2.00Goals conceded0.80 (better)
2.35 (better)Expected goals (xG)2.02
Big chances
6.25 (better)Shots on target4.75
15.25 (better)Total shots11.50
Touches in opp. box
6.50 (better)Corners5.50
56.3Possession %60.5 (better)
421Passes489 (better)
Tackles
11.33 (better)Fouls14.25
2.00Offsides1.75 (better)
Throw-ins
1.25 (better)Yellow cards2.50
0.00Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Ulsan Hyundai FC wins
2
Draws
1
Gangwon FC wins
2
Goals / game
3.60
Over 2.5
80%
Both score
80%
K League 1 table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1FC Seoul352078+3067FC Seoul won 1 of the last 5
2Ulsan Hyundai FC3517612+757Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3 of the last 5
3Daejeon Citizen35141110+1453Daejeon Citizen won 4 of the last 5
4Gangwon FC3512158+1051Gangwon FC won 2 of the last 5
5Jeonbuk Motors35121310+949Jeonbuk Motors won 1 of the last 5
6Incheon United35131012+749Incheon United won 3 of the last 5
7Jeju United FC35121211+248Jeju United FC won 0 of the last 5
8FC Anyang35111311-846FC Anyang won 2 of the last 5
9Pohang Steelers35111113-944Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 5
10Gimcheon Sangmu FC356209-738Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1 of the last 5
11Bucheon FC 19953571216-1633Bucheon FC 1995 won 0 of the last 5
12Gwangju FC3531418-3923Gwangju FC won 2 of the last 5