Predicted Edge

Ulsan Hyundai FC v Bucheon FC 1995

Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3 of the last 52nd2–1Bucheon FC 1995 won 0 of the last 511th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Ulsan Hyundai FC Bucheon FC 1995
10Shots4
4Shots on target3
8Corners1
—Fouls—
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
—Offsides—
—Passes—
62%Possession %38%
—xG—
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
27%
Both score
54%
Model pick
Ulsan Hyundai FC 41%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.23

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Bucheon FC 1995 0

3.34Marathonbet · fair 2.99 · qualifies at 3.08+ · 1.24u
Why this price?

Back Bucheon FC 1995 0 on the Asian handicap at 3.34 with Marathonbet — Bucheon FC 1995 to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 44% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 27%; we judge it at 33%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.99. The offered 3.34 implies only 30%, so the price is 11.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.24 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.42, Bucheon FC 1995 1.23.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultBucheon FC 199531.8%3.145.00 Betano20.0%+11.8
Total goalsOver 1.574.8%1.341.22 Betano82.0%-7.1
Total goalsUnder 1.525.2%3.974.33 Bet36523.1%+2.1
Total goalsOver 2.549.4%2.021.70 Betano58.8%-9.4
Total goalsUnder 2.550.6%1.982.15 Bet36546.5%+4.1
Total goalsUnder 3.572.5%1.381.45 Betano69.0%+3.6
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes54.3%1.841.73 Bet36557.8%-3.5
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No45.7%2.192.15 Betfair46.5%-0.8
Match resultUlsan Hyundai FC41.0%2.441.70 Betano58.8%-17.8
Match resultDraw27.2%3.684.00 BetVictor25.0%+2.2
Total goalsOver 3.527.5%3.642.70 BetVictor37.0%-9.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Ulsan Hyundai FC favoured against Bucheon FC 1995

Our model makes Ulsan Hyundai FC 41% to win this K League 1 fixture, with the draw at 27% and Bucheon FC 1995 at 32%. The goal projection is 1.42 for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.23 for Bucheon FC 1995 — a slight edge to Ulsan Hyundai FC on expected output. A combined 2.65 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 9%
2-1 9%
0-1 8%
0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995
Ulsan Hyundai FC Bucheon FC 1995
35Played35
17-6-12W-D-L7-12-16
1.63Pts / game0.94
1.60Goals for / game1.00
1.40Goals against / game1.46
66%Over 2.549%
71%BTTS46%
17%Clean sheets26%
17%Failed to score40%
10-2-6Home record3-8-8
7-4-6Away record4-4-8
W2StreakD1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ulsan Hyundai FC · Bucheon FC 1995

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.0Shots7.0
7.0Shots on target3.6
4.0Corners2.6
1.20Cards2.20
—Fouls—
54Possession %43
—xG—
5 matchessample5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.4Shots10.8
5.8Shots on target5.4
3.6Corners4.2
1.00Cards1.80
—Fouls—
46Possession %57
—xG—
5 matchessample5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ulsan Hyundai FCMetricBucheon FC 1995
1.40 (better)Goals scored0.60
0.80 (better)Goals conceded2.60
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
3.60Shots on target3.80 (better)
11.40 (better)Total shots10.60
Touches in opp. box
5.20 (better)Corners3.80
48.6 (better)Possession %40.2
334Passes337 (better)
Tackles
12.50Fouls10.75 (better)
1.75Offsides1.00 (better)
Throw-ins
1.80 (better)Yellow cards2.20
0.20Red cards0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Ulsan Hyundai FC wins
3
Draws
0
Bucheon FC 1995 wins
0
Goals / game
2.33
Over 2.5
67%
Both score
67%
K League 1 table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1FC Seoul352078+3067FC Seoul won 1 of the last 5
2Ulsan Hyundai FC3517612+757Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3 of the last 5
3Daejeon Citizen35141110+1453Daejeon Citizen won 4 of the last 5
4Gangwon FC3512158+1051Gangwon FC won 2 of the last 5
5Jeonbuk Motors35121310+949Jeonbuk Motors won 1 of the last 5
6Incheon United35131012+749Incheon United won 3 of the last 5
7Jeju United FC35121211+248Jeju United FC won 0 of the last 5
8FC Anyang35111311-846FC Anyang won 2 of the last 5
9Pohang Steelers35111113-944Pohang Steelers won 0 of the last 5
10Gimcheon Sangmu FC356209-738Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1 of the last 5
11Bucheon FC 19953571216-1633Bucheon FC 1995 won 0 of the last 5
12Gwangju FC3531418-3923Gwangju FC won 2 of the last 5