Ujpest v Puskas Academy

6th0–11st

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Ujpest		Puskas Academy
25	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	3
6	Corners	3
12	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	1
3	Offsides	1
521	Passes	319
66%	Possession %	34%
2.15	xG	0.70

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Ujpest 39%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.59 – 1.53

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Ujpest	39.0%	2.57	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-6.1
Match result	Draw	24.8%	4.03	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-2.2
Match result	Puskas Academy	36.2%	2.76	2.95 Dafabet	33.9%	+2.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.3%	1.22	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-1.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.7%	5.65	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	-0.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.2%	1.66	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-1.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	39.8%	2.51	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-1.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.9%	2.64	2.47 Betano	40.5%	-2.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.1%	1.61	1.57 Betfair	63.7%	-1.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.8%	1.59	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.2%	2.69	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-0.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Ujpest v Puskas Academy: too close to call

Our model makes Ujpest 39% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 25% and Puskas Academy at 36%. The goal projection is 1.59 for Ujpest against 1.53 for Puskas Academy — almost nothing to Ujpest on expected output. A combined 3.12 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Ujpest and Puskas Academy
Ujpest		Puskas Academy
13	Played	13
5-3-5	W-D-L	8-0-5
1.38	Pts / game	1.85
1.62	Goals for / game	1.38
1.54	Goals against / game	1.15
62%	Over 2.5	46%
77%	BTTS	46%
0%	Clean sheets	38%
23%	Failed to score	15%
4-1-1	Home record	2-0-4
1-2-4	Away record	6-0-1
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ujpest · Puskas Academy

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
20.0	Shots	10.2
6.5	Shots on target	3.8
6.8	Corners	3.6
2.83	Cards	3.00
13.8	Fouls	16.4
55	Possession %	42
2.14	xG	1.08
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.2	Shots	14.4
4.2	Shots on target	4.2
3.3	Corners	5.4
2.70	Cards	2.60
16.0	Fouls	12.2
46	Possession %	58
1.44	xG	1.46
6 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ujpest	Metric	Puskas Academy
2.00	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.00
12.33	Total shots	12.67 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.67	Corners	6.00 (better)
49.0	Possession %	50.0 (better)
422 (better)	Passes	371
	Tackles
13.00 (better)	Fouls	17.67
1.67	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.67	Yellow cards	2.33 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Ujpest wins: 0
Draws: 1
Puskas Academy wins: 3
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Ujpest v Puskas Academy0–12026-10-17
Puskas Academy v Ujpest2–02026-04-25
Ujpest v Puskas Academy0–12026-01-31
Puskas Academy v Ujpest0–02025-10-04

Hungarian NB I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Puskas Academy	13	8	0	5	+3	24	Puskas Academy won 3 of the last 5
2	Ferencvarosi TC	12	6	5	1	+12	23	Ferencvarosi TC won 3 of the last 5
3	Gyori ETO FC	13	6	5	2	+7	23	Gyori ETO FC won 2 of the last 5
4	Debreceni VSC	13	6	4	3	+6	22	Debreceni VSC won 4 of the last 5
5	Paks	13	6	2	5	+2	20	Paks won 3 of the last 5
6	Ujpest	13	5	3	5	+1	18	Ujpest won 1 of the last 5
7	Vasas	13	4	4	5	+1	16	Vasas won 0 of the last 5
8	Budapest Honved	12	3	5	4	-3	14	Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5
9	Zalaegerszegi TE	13	4	1	8	-7	13	Zalaegerszegi TE won 2 of the last 5
10	MTK Budapest	13	3	4	6	-9	13	MTK Budapest won 1 of the last 5
11	Kisvarda FC	13	2	6	5	-3	12	Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Nyiregyhaza	13	3	3	7	-10	12	Nyiregyhaza won 1 of the last 5