Ujpest v Nyiregyhaza

6th2–112th

17:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Ujpest		Nyiregyhaza
25	Shots	15
10	Shots on target	5
11	Corners	0
13	Fouls	18
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
416	Passes	352
53%	Possession %	47%
3.39	xG	1.94

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 65%
Over 3.5: 43%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: Ujpest 51%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.98 – 1.38

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Nyiregyhaza +0.25

2.83Marathonbet · fair 2.58 · qualifies at 2.66+ · 1.31u

Why this price?

Back Nyiregyhaza +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.83 with Marathonbet — Nyiregyhaza starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 42% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 36%; we judge it at 39%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.58. The offered 2.83 implies only 35%, so the price is 9.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.31 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Ujpest 1.98, Nyiregyhaza 1.38.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Ujpest	51.0%	1.96	2.00 Betano	50.0%	+1.0
Match result	Draw	22.7%	4.40	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	-3.9
Match result	Nyiregyhaza	26.3%	3.80	3.60 Bet365	27.8%	-1.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.4%	1.17	1.20 Betano	83.3%	+2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.6%	6.85	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	-7.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	65.4%	1.53	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+3.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	34.6%	2.89	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-7.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	43.4%	2.30	2.62 Bet365	38.2%	+5.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	56.6%	1.77	1.53 Betano	65.4%	-8.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	65.1%	1.54	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	34.9%	2.86	2.38 William Hill	42.0%	-7.1

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Ujpest favoured against Nyiregyhaza

Our model makes Ujpest 51% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 23% and Nyiregyhaza at 26%. The goal projection is 1.98 for Ujpest against 1.38 for Nyiregyhaza — a substantial edge to Ujpest on expected output. A combined 3.37 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 7%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Ujpest and Nyiregyhaza
Ujpest		Nyiregyhaza
13	Played	13
5-3-5	W-D-L	3-3-7
1.38	Pts / game	0.92
1.62	Goals for / game	1.08
1.54	Goals against / game	1.85
62%	Over 2.5	62%
77%	BTTS	77%
0%	Clean sheets	0%
23%	Failed to score	23%
4-1-1	Home record	2-3-1
1-2-4	Away record	1-0-6
L1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ujpest · Nyiregyhaza

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
20.0	Shots	13.2
6.5	Shots on target	5.0
6.8	Corners	4.2
2.83	Cards	2.67
13.8	Fouls	16.7
55	Possession %	53
2.14	xG	1.12
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.2	Shots	14.5
4.2	Shots on target	5.7
3.3	Corners	5.2
2.70	Cards	2.50
16.0	Fouls	13.8
46	Possession %	47
1.44	xG	2.14
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Ujpest	Metric	Nyiregyhaza
1.20	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.75 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.82
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.33
17.67 (better)	Total shots	13.33
	Touches in opp. box
7.67 (better)	Corners	4.33
57.7 (better)	Possession %	53.0
471 (better)	Passes	358
	Tackles
12.67 (better)	Fouls	18.67
3.00	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.67 (better)	Yellow cards	3.33
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Ujpest wins: 2
Draws: 2
Nyiregyhaza wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.20
Over 2.5: 80%
Both score: 100%

Ujpest v Nyiregyhaza2–12026-11-01
Nyiregyhaza v Ujpest2–12026-07-24
Ujpest v Nyiregyhaza7–22026-04-17
Nyiregyhaza v Ujpest1–12026-01-24
Ujpest v Nyiregyhaza2–22025-09-26

Hungarian NB I table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Puskas Academy	13	8	0	5	+3	24	Puskas Academy won 3 of the last 5
2	Ferencvarosi TC	12	6	5	1	+12	23	Ferencvarosi TC won 3 of the last 5
3	Gyori ETO FC	13	6	5	2	+7	23	Gyori ETO FC won 2 of the last 5
4	Debreceni VSC	13	6	4	3	+6	22	Debreceni VSC won 4 of the last 5
5	Paks	13	6	2	5	+2	20	Paks won 3 of the last 5
6	Ujpest	13	5	3	5	+1	18	Ujpest won 1 of the last 5
7	Vasas	13	4	4	5	+1	16	Vasas won 0 of the last 5
8	Budapest Honved	12	3	5	4	-3	14	Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5
9	Zalaegerszegi TE	13	4	1	8	-7	13	Zalaegerszegi TE won 2 of the last 5
10	MTK Budapest	13	3	4	6	-9	13	MTK Budapest won 1 of the last 5
11	Kisvarda FC	13	2	6	5	-3	12	Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5
12	Nyiregyhaza	13	3	3	7	-10	12	Nyiregyhaza won 1 of the last 5