Predicted Edge

Tudelano v Zaragoza

Tudelano won 0 of the last 10–4

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Tudelano Zaragoza
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
—Fouls—
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
—Offsides—
—Passes—
—Possession %—
—xG—
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
26%
Both score
53%
Model pick
Tudelano 44%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.13

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultTudelano44.2%2.267.00 Bet36514.3%+29.9
Match resultDraw27.2%3.684.33 Bet36523.1%+4.1
Match resultZaragoza28.6%3.501.61 Dafabet62.1%-33.5
Total goalsOver 1.573.9%1.351.36 Bet36573.5%+0.4
Total goalsUnder 1.526.1%3.833.50 Betfair28.6%-2.5
Total goalsUnder 2.551.8%1.931.80 Bet36555.6%-3.8
Total goalsOver 3.526.4%3.783.50 Bet36528.6%-2.1
Total goalsUnder 3.573.6%1.361.31 BetVictor76.3%-2.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes52.8%1.892.20 Bet36545.5%+7.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No47.2%2.121.80 Betfair55.6%-8.4
Total goalsOver 2.548.2%2.082.00 Bet36550.0%-1.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Tudelano favoured against Zaragoza

Our model makes Tudelano 44% to win this Copa del Rey fixture, with the draw at 27% and Zaragoza at 29%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Tudelano against 1.13 for Zaragoza — a clear edge to Tudelano on expected output. A combined 2.60 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 10%
2-1 9%
0-0 8%
2-0 8%

This season

Season records for Tudelano and Zaragoza
Tudelano Zaragoza
1Played—
0-0-1W-D-L—
0.00Pts / game—
0.00Goals for / game—
4.00Goals against / game—
100%Over 2.5—
0%BTTS—
0%Clean sheets—
100%Failed to score—
0-0-1Home record—
0-0-0Away record—
L1Streak—

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Tudelano · Zaragoza

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
2.00Cards0.00
—Fouls—
—Possession %—
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots—
—Shots on target—
—Corners—
0.00Cards2.00
—Fouls—
—Possession %—
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
TudelanoMetricZaragoza
1.80Goals scored2.20 (better)
1.60Goals conceded1.00 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Tudelano wins
0
Draws
0
Zaragoza wins
1
Goals / game
4.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
0%